Unemployment
Upside risks from Trump tariffs prompted Fed to hold rates
FOMC minutes show that January’s decision was partly informed by potential changes in US trade policy
Fed board members pledge caution in cutting rates
Governors say unemployment and inflation risks are roughly in balance
CNB’s Aleš Michl on tackling inflation, Friedman’s legacy and ditching DSGE
The Czech governor speaks about policy mistakes, targeting M2, diversifying into equities and gold, building new models and ending interest payments on minimum reserves
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bp
Powell says effects of Trump’s proposed policies, including tariffs, remain unclear
Demographics could trigger closures of US universities – study
Research by Philly Fed says fewer young people are enrolling, which is adding to financial pressures
ECB cuts rates by 25bp
Eurosystem disinflation “well on track” and council “did not discuss” TPI, says Lagarde
US inflation expectations tick up across all time horizons
NY Fed survey finds more respondents expect prices to rise over one- three- and five-year timeframes
US consumers predict growing pressure from inflation and debt
More respondents to NY Fed survey expect to miss payments and to face steeper price rises
FOMC in no hurry to cut rates, says Powell
September’s loosening reflects growing confidence in soft landing, argues Fed chair
FOMC initiates rate cutting with 50bp reduction
Experts say Fed’s credibility is not on the line, but Powell remains under significant pressure
FOMC members signal rate cut
Waller, Bostic, Daly, Schmid, Goolsbee and Williams speak towards balancing both sides of dual mandate
Phillips curve differs depending on labour market – Fed study
Research finds curve to be flat in normal markets and steep in tight ones
Bank closures lead to job cuts at small businesses – Fed study
Research finds that if 25% of local branches close, employment growth falls by four percentage points
BLS revises US employment downward
Bureau says 818,000 fewer jobs were created over year to March than it had previously estimated
Fed chair says time has come to adjust policy
Powell warns of ‘unmistakable’ labour market cooling in speech at Jackson Hole summit
‘Beveridge threshold’ can explain US soft landing – study
Gauti Eggertson tells Jackson Hole attendees why many economists were too gloomy about growth
Medium-term US inflation expectations hit record low
However, expert says infrastructure projects could push prices to higher-than-expected levels
Fed holds rates again
Powell says FOMC’s “broad sense” is that US economy is moving to point where cuts would be justified
European Central Bank holds rates
Inflation set for return to target in 2025, as Lagarde defends ECB response to staff burnout
Policy should ‘accommodate’ core inflation to ward off unemployment – paper
Central banks can help insulate vulnerable households in event of energy shock
BNM’s Rasheed on inflation, growth and currency performance in emerging markets
Bank Negara Malaysia’s governor speaks about balancing inflation and growth, supporting the ringgit, multilateral currency settlement and greening Islamic finance