Unemployment
Carney says rate hold was ‘easy decision’ after 9-0 vote
‘Super’ Thursday becomes ‘subdued’ Thursday as BoE revises growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts down; policy on hold
Severely adverse scenario will now include ‘more severe downturn’ for US
Severely adverse scenario will now include ‘more severe downturn’ in the US economy; two new BHCs will take part, bringing total number to 33
Restructuring Norwegian economy will take time, Norges Bank says
The Norwegian economy is suffering amid further falls in oil prices, and rebalancing will take time, but central bank policy is doing its best to support the transition, report says
Yellen warns not to 'overblow' liftoff as Federal Reserve raises rates
Federal Open Market Committee will keep close eye on ‘actual and expected progress’ toward 2% inflation, after embarking on first tightening cycle since 2006 with 25bp hike
Paper uses Okun’s Law to assess Australian potential output
Discussion paper published by Reserve Bank of Australia estimates potential output growth has fallen from around 5% in the 1970s to 2.9% now
Haldane charts impact of automation on UK economy
Up to 15 million jobs could be at risk from automation in the UK alone, the BoE’s chief economist says, adding a rate rise is unnecessary at this juncture
Fed rate rise given the ‘amber light’
Federal Reserve holds rates but hints there could be action at the December meeting; analysts still seeing mixed signals
Cycles in Korean unemployment explained ‘mostly’ by domestic shocks, paper finds
Working paper estimates a new Keynesian model with labour market frictions, designed to mirror the Korean economy, to study relationship between different shocks and dynamics
Minneapolis Fed president open to cutting rates
Narayana Kocherlakota stresses room for improvement in US labour market, noting low inflation could give the Fed space to pursue more accommodative policy
Fed policy has ‘little impact’ on labour market, paper says
Paper published by Minneapolis Fed argues there is little the Fed can do to restore the level of employment relative to the population that prevailed before the crisis
Micro-data matters for unemployment, says BoE’s Broadbent
Deputy governor becomes latest economist to stress importance of micro data for macro policy, warning overreliance on ‘simple aggregates’ may lead central bankers astray
Bank of England wary of China risks but UK outlook steady
The MPC’s view is not materially affected by recent volatility in the financial markets as it keeps policy on hold; domestically, an increase in wage growth is offset by higher productivity
US unemployment falls to 5.1% despite drop in jobs growth
Richmond Fed president describes it as a ‘right-down-the-middle-of-the-fairway’ unemployment report, as he spells out why the time is right to begin raising interest rates
Research maps Norwegian challenges if oil prices stay low
Economic commentary considers how the increase in oil prices over the past decade has affected Norway in a bid to understand how the recent price drop could play out
Fischer upbeat on US inflation outlook at Jackson Hole
Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer says there is ‘good reason’ to believe inflation will move higher as impact of rise in dollar and fall in oil prices dissipates
Lockhart still expects rate hike this year
Atlanta Fed president still expects Fed to start tightening ‘sometime’ this year but market expectations of a September hike have fallen
Lockhart says Fed liftoff is ‘close’
Atlanta Fed president highlights ‘cumulative evidence’ of economic recovery and says he is willing to sanction the first rate increase in the face of ‘mixed data’
US rate hike still a possibility after ‘solid’ jobs data
Federal Reserve still on track to hike rates later this year, possibly as soon as September, after latest jobs data shows 215,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls
Italian paper explores wage and unemployment relationship
Occasional paper stresses the choice of measures for the change in wage rates has ‘important consequences for the results’
Yellen bats away calls for simple rules-based policy
Fed chair tells Committee on Financial Services a monetary policy rule based on two economic variables is inappropriate as ‘the world is more complicated than that’
Yellen expects 'lift-off' later this year
Janet Yellen expects the Fed to raise the federal funds rate "at some point" in 2015 with full employment "coming closer into view" and inflation on track to return to 2% in the next few years
Research calls on Fed to replace ‘dot plot’
Working paper published by the IMF suggests publishing a baseline forecast compiled by staff and 'endorsed' by the FOMC as a replacement for individual and anonymous projections
Fed officials still back 2015 rate hike
Median of latest projections suggests federal funds rate will reach 0.625% by the end of the year; FOMC delivers more upbeat assessment as its keeps policy unchanged
Cleveland Fed economists cautious over use of Taylor rule
Research emphasises the difficulty in measuring potential output and the natural rate of unemployment accurately and urges policy-makers to ‘take care’ when using the rule