ECB outlines changes to forecasting during Covid
High-frequency data, GDP-at-risk, changes to use of PMI and stringency index all useful, authors say
A paper in the European Central Bank’s forthcoming economic bulletin sets out how it has changed its forecasting as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Niccolò Battistini, Gabe de Bondt, Roberto De Santis and Lorena Saiz examine four main innovations in the ECB’s forecasting approach. The ECB’s analysts tried to calculate the economic impacts of the different methods used across the eurozone to contain the pandemic. They used a pooled panel regression to estimate the relationship between
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