Research
Paper warns macro-prudential tools can have ‘blunt’ impact
Working paper sees potential for macro-prudential tools to have ‘aggregate’ impact, using ‘quantitative restriction’ deployed in Japan from 1970s onwards as an example
Colombian paper explores signals from FX interventions
Interventions in the foreign exchange market act as ‘signals’ to solve co-ordination failure, paper says, suggesting findings can help strategy
IMF paper says transmission is working but lopsided in the Dominican Republic
Researchers say the Dominican Republic has been successful in establishing a monetary transmission mechanism, but future work should focus on balancing pass-through to deposit and lending rates
BIS paper finds close link between MBS and bond yields
Authors find ‘strong empirical evidence’ for feedback between mortgage-backed securities and bond yields, with the effects proving transient and ‘hump-shaped’
New Zealand economists stress-test dairy sector
An article published by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand finds banking system losses would still be ‘manageable’ under the worst-case scenario for milk prices and farm values
BoE paper explores monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions
Macroeconomic and financial frictions in an economy can require ‘intervention of opposite direction’ on the interest rate, which a second instrument can help mitigate, paper finds
Energy and food price rises have ‘strong’ second-round effects in South Africa, paper says
A new model of South African food and energy price rises allows the quantification of their second-round impact on wider inflation measures, a working paper argues
Shocks to income have pushed Australian inequality higher, paper finds
Both income and consumption inequality have risen among Australian households due to the effect of short-term and long-term shocks to income, an RBA paper argues
Spanish paper finds issues with Basel III approach to calculating risk-weighted assets
The approach to calculating banks’ risk-weighted assets introduced by Basel III may create incentives for ‘regulatory arbitrage’, a Bank of Spain paper argues
Rising Swedish bank wages do not reflect rising talent, Riksbank paper finds
Researchers exploit large database of worker skills to assess why Swedish bank wages have risen so sharply in recent years, finding it is not because bankers have become relatively more talented
Paper uses Okun’s Law to assess Australian potential output
Discussion paper published by Reserve Bank of Australia estimates potential output growth has fallen from around 5% in the 1970s to 2.9% now
Spanish paper offers guide to using BIS data
A paper published by the Bank of Spain offers an introduction to the statistical data on international banking published by the BIS
Modern central banks need big data strategy, Riksbank economists say
Central banks need to adapt to growing data volumes, but the organisational changes required could help departments work together more closely, economists say
Forecasters expected ‘significant’ drop in bond yields in wake of Fed easing, paper finds
Staff report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York examines how professional forecasters revised their predictions in aftermath of Fed decisions
Irish economy improving but still vulnerable to shocks, central bank warns
Ireland’s economic outlook improved during the second half of the year, but the country is still vulnerable to financial shocks, says the Central Bank of Ireland in its latest macro-financial review
Barbados paper identifies a ‘couple of gaps’ in central bank archives
Working paper calls for Central Bank of Barbados to implement fully inclusive digital database after 'gaps' in archival activities are identified
Mexican paper sees need for ‘combination’ of policies to reduce informal labour
Measures to reduce entry barriers to and relative value of formal labour could be in order, working paper published by Bank of Mexico finds
Shift to single currency increased volatility of money growth, paper argues
The shift to European monetary union had a major impact on the volatility of money growth rates in the eurozone, a working paper from the Banque de France argues
Advice can affect clients' mortgage choices, says BIS paper
Banks may ‘steer’ households towards certain mortgage types; distorted information has a stronger affect when prices are not adjusted
Domestic euro users bear highest shoe leather costs, Bank of Italy paper finds
Euros circulate widely outside the eurozone, transferring some costs to foreigners – but the effect is small relative to the popularity of the euro as a global currency
Norges Bank paper proposes linking CCP risk management to capital charges
Author recommends stress tests of CCPs to gauge interconnectedness, and proposes higher capital charges for CCPs with weaker risk management
South African review charts motivations behind resumption of tightening cycle
One of three chief considerations was the path of exchange rate and the risks it posed to inflation, which increased as the year went on
Historical data supports fiscal theory of the price level, Bundesbank paper argues
Data from the US, Germany and Italy give policy-makers useful data on the long-term influence of fiscal policy on inflation, a Bundesbank discussion paper argues
Peer-monitoring can help identify ‘distressed’ financial institutions, paper says
Colombian working paper presents early warning system which looks at the liquidity price market participants charge one another