Research
Dutch paper explores information content of asset prices for inflation
Working paper finds high asset prices can be an indicator of either high or low inflation, though more commonly the former; considers information content of range of financial variables
European banks’ structure helps drive dollar-denominated debt issuance – paper
Bank of Spain paper examines the most prolific dollar-denominated debt issuers among European banks, finding issuance is driven by range of factors, including desire to hedge
Irish central bank warns of ‘negative and material’ impact from Brexit
Quarterly bulletin discusses channels through which UK vote to leave EU will affect Ireland; economy expected to grow by 4.9% this year and 3.7% next
Bank of Italy paper aims to improve on EC current account model
Research offers a new model of external adjustment; the EC’s model tends to mis-state cyclically adjusted current account balances of large eurozone economies, researchers argue
IMF paper examines impact of debt restructurings on growth
Growth usually declines after debt restructurings, but it can boost performance if the country exits a default spell, the authors find
Exposure to sovereign risk may limit banks’ ability to attract deposits – IMF paper
Research shows non-linear relationship between exposure to sovereign risk and deposit outflows; exposure negatively affected growth of consumer deposits 2006-2011
Chinese law doubts holding back RMB internationalisation – paper
A Bank of Italy occasional paper plots the development of renminbi trading in Europe; future development may be characterised by rapid advances followed by slower periods, authors say
Italian paper looks at effects of Basel leverage ratio on repo and refinancing
A move to higher leverage ratios by eurozone banks has not decreased their repo and refinancing activities, a Bank of Italy paper says
Inflation expectations are part of QE transmission mechanism – BoE paper
Firms’ inflation expectations increase in response to QE, research finds; interventions played ‘modest’ role in stabilising inflation expectations in recent years
ECB paper compares ability of indicators to predict bond risk premia
Researchers assemble 132 macroeconomic indicators and compare their performance against financial measures as predictors of eurozone countries’ bond risk premia
Atlanta Fed paper demonstrates signalling mechanism in mortgage market
Lenders in mortgage market able to reveal quality of loans by delaying trade, authors find; loans sold five months after origination less likely to default
Money illusion may not be irrational – BIS paper
Claudio Borio and Anna Zabai suggest people’s attachment to a unit of account is not simply a failure to think in real terms, with implications for the effectiveness of negative rates
Mortgage interest tax deduction can increase market volatility – DNB paper
Making interest payments on housing loans tax-deductible can raise the debt levels of households and their chances of default, and increase housing market volatility in response to outside shocks
Temporary price changes affecting inflation more – BoJ paper
Working paper explores how frequent micro-level price changes can be reconciled with macro-price stickiness; temporary price changes happening more, and increasingly in one direction, authors say
Bank of Italy sees Brexit having little impact on country
Commercial and financial links between Britain and Italy are much more limited than other European countries, argues the Bank of Italy in its latest economic bulletin
ECB publishes guide to its macroeconomic projections
European Central Bank publishes guide to how its staff research and publish their regular projections for the eurozone economy; gives details of models and tools used
Short-sale disclosure rules can distort securities prices, Bundesbank paper says
European Union transparency conditions may have led to distortions in the prices of German securities by deterring short-sellers, discussion paper argues
ECB paper explores capital-based macroprudential measures
Dampened credit and asset price growth can have a “sizable” impact on predicted crisis probabilities, authors note; they present an early warning global autoregressive model
ECB paper presents ‘news’ and ‘noise’ model of US housing market
A new model of the US property market differentiates between “news and noise shocks”; latter can have significant effects and policy-makers should consider pro-cyclical property taxes, author says
Inflation expectations shaped by different forces in short and long term – BoE research
UK households are influenced by perceptions of actual inflation, but other factors grow in importance in the longer run, quarterly bulletin article finds
Model-based regulation in Germany had unintended consequences, researchers say
The move to model-based banking regulation in Germany studied in working paper; loan default and loss rates rose for loans created under new regime
Network analysis sheds light on systemic risk – BoE paper
Pilot study of derivatives markets makes use of CDS data to map network of interlinkages, finding more than just immediate counterparty ties matter for systemic risk
IMF paper explores impact of financial development on wealth dispersion
Authors focus on China between 1995 and 2002; suggest lower access barriers and a deeper market can “greatly improve” welfare
Balance sheet policy matters for credibility – Norges Bank paper
Researcher argues a central bank’s financial strength may affect its ability to meet its monetary policy mandate, based on evidence from the UK’s gold standard period