Research
ECB publishes latest eurozone trade and investment guide
“Bop and IIP book“ explains compilation of national and eurozone figures
Rate pass-through 'weaker and slower' in Mongolia – paper
Reforms at the Bank of Mongolia have improved the transmission mechanism, authors say, but there is plenty more work to do
Unreported assets worth $6–7 trillion, Italian researchers say
“Areas of opacity” remain, despite recent anti-evasion initiatives, authors say; paper estimates the global levels of personal tax evasion and undeclared assets held overseas
Norges Bank paper presents new evidence on immigration impact
Authors seek to disentangle immigration shock from broader macroeconomic effects, using unique Norwegian data series
RBA paper asks why companies fail
Researchers find specific features of Australian companies make them more likely to fail
Swiss paper shows macro impacts on two safe-haven currencies
Authors surprised to find no significant impact on franc or yen stemming from euro crisis; foreign macroeconomic data has asymmetric impact
BoJ paper designs new measure of trend inflation
Author’s measure reflects the weighted average of an adaptive component and a forward-looking component
Colombian paper models non-linearity in sovereign risk
Model of real exchange rates seeks to capture the non-linear effects of sovereign risk for Latin American countries
Italian banks’ macro cycle “still weak” – Bank of Italy report
Italian central bank publishes latest financial stability report
BoJ economists seek best escape route from liquidity traps
Some policies are more effective than others, but a combination can generate stronger effects, researchers find
Paper examines relationship between monetary policy and bank funding crises
Current regulatory tools are not sufficient to contain bank runs, Canadian working paper suggests, underscoring the importance of policy measures such as reserve requirements
Emerging markets hit harder by US rate hikes than domestic policy – Bank of Korea paper
US rate hikes have a larger impact on growth and financial flows in emerging markets than changes in domestic policy, researchers find
Eurozone banks need to change business models – Constâncio
ECB vice-president points to Swedish banks’ profitability despite low and negative rates
IMF paper seeks to quantify debt bias
Tax systems create “pervasive” debt bias, authors find, arguing for policy action before the problem worsens
Fed research proposes micro-founded approach to term structure modelling
Economists build structural New Keynesian model in contrast to the statistical approaches in much of the available literature, identifying key factors shaping term premiums
Unit root methods can help detect financial bubbles, Finnish paper argues
Researchers apply tool to data from 15 European countries
Credit scoring improves borrower selection, Bank of Italy paper says
Paper presents a database on loans and the use of credit-scoring models; banks’ use of credit scoring reduces the likelihood of borrower defaulting, researchers say
RBA paper finds it is hard to pinpoint US productivity slowdowns
Break in productivity growth trend in US appears to have happened in early 1970s, although beliefs took three decades to fully adjust, authors find
Dallas Fed research seeks to improve real-time inflation forecasts
Economists break surveys of inflation expectations down into parts, finding stripping out the noise component improves forecasting
RBNZ’s Spencer sees need for better approach to FMI oversight
The framework, if put into legislation, would give the central bank and markets authority new powers of information-gathering and oversight
SNB paper models ‘sticky consumption’ in Switzerland
Assuming consumption habits are slow to change helps produce more robust results than other methods, author finds
BoE paper takes DSGE approach to deflation probabilities
Comparing simulations using a DSGE model estimated on different market-based measures of deflation probability helps to pick out causality, researchers say
Weighting models by performance is better than taking simple averages, researchers say
Weighting models by performance is better than taking simple averages, researchers say
ECB paper assesses influence of international linkages on length and severity of recession
Credit growth combined with other vulnerabilities is important, authors argue