Research
ECB paper quantifies spillover from sovereign to corporate credit risk
Research studies direct spillover effects using credit default swaps and data on 226 firms from 15 European countries in aftermath of first Greek bail-out
Bundesbank paper explores interbank market functionality during crisis
The German interbank market did not fail, per se, in the 2007-8 financial crisis, a Bundesbank discussion paper argues; bank fundamentals determined ability to roll over interbank positions
Paper finds positive impact from Dodd-Frank swap rules
Compulsory trading via swap execution facilities has boosted liquidity and cut trading costs in the market for interest rate swaps, working paper published by BoE finds
BoJ paper: inflation expectations do not match target
Study of ‘dissonance’ in forecasts between economic agents and the central bank finds people only believe the BoJ will hit its target in the short to medium term – after that, inflation drops
BoE paper seeks to improve forecasts with adaptive model
Using an adaptive model in conjunction with heavy-tailed t-distributions allows authors to deliver ‘substantial improvements’ in forecasting inflation
Growing case for planning Cambodian de-dollarisation, paper says
Cambodia needs a strong macroeconomic framework for de-dollarisation to be successful, research says; economic and political stability a good starting place
Brazilian paper charts impact of inflation signal on expectations
Agents update forecasts immediately after new information is released and the impact of new information is dependent on ‘precision’, a working paper suggests
Monetary policy easing increases systemic risk-taking, paper finds
Brazilian domestic monetary policy is more statistically significant in this regard than foreign monetary policy, working paper suggests
Spanish paper models synergies between demand and supply policies in monetary union
Working paper model sees benefits in jointly implementing structural reforms in the ‘periphery’ of a union, with fiscal expansion in the ‘core’ and forward guidance on interest rates
Bank of England paper explores exchange rate pass-through using ‘big data’
Author finds the pass-through to import prices varies depending on the size of the exchange rate movement at the micro level, but it is a different story at the macro level
IMF paper compares impact of monetary and macro-prudential policies
Research considers effects of measures in ‘systemic advanced economies’ on financial conditions both at home and abroad; monetary shocks in US can have ‘significant’ impact
Korean paper explores ‘divergent’ spillovers to EMs
Macro-prudential policies key to protecting emerging markets from spillovers, research says; normalisation in the US could lead to ‘renewed tensions’
European markets may still view some banks as ‘too big to fail’, paper argues
European governments may be seen as supporting ‘national champions’ in banking, researchers say
BIS paper explores policy trade-offs in Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific central banks that have used macro-prudential policy to control credit growth may have faced a short-term trade-off between financial and price objectives, paper notes
Inertia an important factor in consumer banking market, paper argues
Inertia among consumers is an important factor in the market for personal banking, a study argues, stressing that policy-makers must improve their understanding of this factor
Colombian paper finds ‘negligible’ contagion effects
Contagion in the interbank market poses no real threat to the Colombian financial system, working paper notes; examines link between bank failure and liquidity
IMF paper sees Indian food prices shaping inflation dynamics
Working paper suggests food inflation will continue to outpace non-food inflation in the coming years, while potentially contributing 1.25 percentage points annually to headline figure
Norges Bank paper seeks to improve modelling of money
Researchers aim to capture the role of money as both a medium of exchange and a liquid asset, with the resulting equilibrium underscoring the need for a liquidity coverage ratio
Paper studies central bank risk and return over 175 years
Research uses the National Bank of Denmark as a case study, exploring how its balance sheet and profit from financial items evolved between 1839 and 2014
Emerging markets more vulnerable than developed economies to policy reversals, paper finds
Working paper published by the IMF considers impact of unconventional monetary policy in major economies on global liquidity and monetary conditions
Better data collection would aid forecasting at Belize central bank, research argues
Forecasting could be improved with better data collection, working paper published by central bank finds
Macro-prudential limits would have had ‘substantial’ impact in Ireland last decade, paper finds
Research published by the Central Bank of Ireland models the impact of macro-prudential policies, including effects on credit available to households and house prices
Bank of England paper explores time-varying capital requirements
Authors use firm-bank level database from UK to examine impact of higher capital requirements on asset growth of borrowing firms; also consider interaction with monetary policy
Markov switching model enables diagnosis of ‘systemic financial stress episodes’, ECB paper argues
A Markov switching model can be used to diagnose episodes when both the real and the financial economies are subject to simultaneous severe stress, paper finds