Economics
BIS paper finds emerging market corporations exploiting carry trade
Study of emerging market foreign currency-denominated bond issuance by Bruno and Shin finds corporations appear to be issuing bonds as part of a carry trade, rather than financing investment
SNB launches interactive ‘data portal’
Central bank plans to release larger volumes and more detailed data in future, after launching an online database to help users find and manipulate the information
Capital controls ineffective at handling policy trilemma, ECB paper finds
Emerging market capital controls have a limited impact on monetary policy trilemma variables and come with spillover effects, the authors warn
RBA paper finds distribution matters when assessing impact of wealth effects
Example of car buying highlights how different households adjust consumption in response to housing wealth effects, although channels remain unclear
FOMC forecasts perform better in short- than long-term, Fed paper finds
Forecasts prepared ahead of FOMC meetings from 1997-2008 considerably outperform benchmarks at short horizons, but the results are much more mixed in the longer term
Irish central bank paper finds high cost to hasty austerity
Economists find most of the costs of fiscal consolidation from 2011-13 could have been avoided if policy-makers waited until the zero lower bound was no longer a constraint
Iranian deputy points to economic turnaround since Rouhani took office
Deputy governor says central bank has managed to impose new discipline on the economy, but sees room for improvement in the broader Islamic world
RBA’s Kent seeks to explain divergent labour and growth outcomes
Assistant governor says range of factors may have contributed to a unexpectedly strong performance of Australian unemployment, even as growth remains subdued
Sarb research updates forecasting model
Refinements to central bank’s semi-structural general equilibrium model aim to better reflect the South African economy over the inflation-targeting period
Chile and IMF divided on potential growth
Latest staff report reveals difference in views on long-term growth of the Chilean economy, in line with earlier comments made by the central bank governor
Norges Bank paper outlines forecasting method for big data
Researchers aim to forecast US stock market and economy using a Bayesian non-parametric model, with a dataset large enough that computing power becomes a problem
Argentine economists offer alternative to DSGE model on macro and financial interactions
BIS working paper sets out a structural model augmented with a financial sector, which the authors say is more practical in many ways than DSGE models
IMF laments lack of progress on global imbalances
Fund calls on both surplus and deficit economies to redress imbalances, arguing this would support global demand management and growth
BIS statistics show divergent outlook for credit flows
Contraction in cross-border claims on emerging markets more than offset by growing flows to developed economies, although there are considerable disparities between countries and regions
Belgian paper examines ‘crisis-proof’ services
Working paper finds ‘significant’ differences between the elasticity of goods exports and services exports with respect to GDP growth during the crisis
Dutch paper contradicts ‘conventional view’ on fiscal adjustments
Working paper cannot rule out that increasing revenues is just as effective at bringing about fiscal adjustment as spending cuts
RBA’s Stevens wants reforms framed as positive narrative
Glenn Stevens argues the average citizen cares about economic potential, and reforms should be presented ‘as a positive narrative’ for growth
Kuroda flags three traps Asia should avoid
BoJ governor points to three traps that threaten growth in Asia and says boosting productivity is the best way to avoid becoming ensnared
Italian paper explores wage and unemployment relationship
Occasional paper stresses the choice of measures for the change in wage rates has ‘important consequences for the results’
Obstfeld will succeed Blanchard at IMF
Lagarde praises the ‘outstanding academic credentials’ of Obstfeld as she announces his appointment as economic counsellor and director of research
San Fran Fed’s Williams says Chinese government ‘realistic’ about growth
John Williams says most economists and officials understand growth will probably drop below current target of 7%, which may lead them to adjust reform timetable
Ex-BoE deputy to review UK statistics in effort to improve productivity measure
Charles Bean will lead an independent review on the ‘quality, delivery and governance’ of economic statistics produced in the UK, as government grapples with productivity puzzle
IMF paper identifies countries that ‘pass through’ spillovers
Individual countries can amplify, absorb or block spillovers, depending on their economic and structural characteristics, researchers at the IMF find
Richmond Fed paper examines relationship between deregulation and innovation
Working paper uses a dynamic equilibrium model to look at ATM and debit card industry in US; offers generalised findings on relationship across financial services industry