Economics
Economists outline improved DSGE forecasting method
Bank of England working paper attempts to improve forecast performance by using a multi-step approach to estimating parameters, delivering what the authors say are ‘significant’ improvements
Central bank 'silo culture' detracts from statistics, says ex-BoJ governor
Masaaki Shirakawa tells audience at Deutsche Bundesbank to expose economists to statistics and business contacts during their careers; Otmar Issing stresses value of good data
RBA’s Kent sees positive side to Chinese readjustment
China’s economic rebalancing is likely to bring benefits to Australia’s economy as well as costs, Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor says
Turkish paper finds Fed staff forecasts superior to rivals
Working paper finds forecasts in the ‘Greenbook’ were consistently more accurate than their commercial equivalents between 1974 and 2009
Haldane charts impact of automation on UK economy
Up to 15 million jobs could be at risk from automation in the UK alone, the BoE’s chief economist says, adding a rate rise is unnecessary at this juncture
BIS paper models non-linear eurozone crisis impact
Researchers attempt to capture endogenous amplification mechanisms in causing widened lending spreads during eurozone crises
Riksbank paper examines mixed forecast performance
Researchers find the central bank has tended to be overly optimistic on foreign economic performance, but makes similar errors to other institutions
Norges Bank paper tries to extract high-frequency forecasts from low-frequency data
Researchers find low-frequency information can be important in forecasting high-frequency variables, designing a model that outperforms a random walk benchmark
Former Nigerian governor Sanusi attacks current central bank policy
Former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria Sanusi Lamido Sanusi challenges monetary policy stance of Nigeria’s central bank and calls for a currency devaluation
Cycles in Korean unemployment explained ‘mostly’ by domestic shocks, paper finds
Working paper estimates a new Keynesian model with labour market frictions, designed to mirror the Korean economy, to study relationship between different shocks and dynamics
Carney wants ‘clear principles’ to safeguard non-euro members
Bank of England study of EU membership finds union has broadly contributed to ‘dynamism’ in the UK economy, but imposition of regulation from afar may not suit UK needs
Models using service inflation better at predicting economic trends, Cleveland Fed paper finds
Researchers find economic forecasting accuracy improves when based on models that tie together the unemployment rate with inflation in services
Central banks starting to unlock potential in big data
Some central banks are making tentative inroads into the study of big data, and many more want to, a study by the BIS’s Irving Fisher Committee finds
Blanchard and others look to reconcile theory of capital flows with practice
Revamp of Mundell-Fleming model helps explain apparently contradictory results, with important implications for policy-makers looking to respond to capital flows
Turkish paper explores productivity differentials
Countries caught in middle-income trap suffered lower productivity gains than others that had ‘graduated’ from it, finds research focused on period from 1950-2005
BoE paper explores money and credit at sectoral level
Working paper models sectors separately before ‘knitting’ them together; authors use framework to examine financial shock and use of quantitative easing to tackle it
ADB cuts China growth forecast to lowest in generation
Asian Development Bank revises down growth projection for 2015 to 6.8% but says talk of Chinese collapse is overblown
Japan lashed by the Fed
The Abe government is using a questionable reading of history to justify policies that are increasing rather than reducing the gloom over Japan’s prospects
BoE’s Forbes calls for rethink of exchange rate pass-through
MPC member outlines new, more nuanced approach to measuring the exchange rate’s impact on inflation, noting this implies rates could need to be tightened sooner than older models suggest
IMF paper challenges idea of debt threshold effect
Countries with high levels of public debt can grow just as fast as their peers, provided the debt is on a downward trajectory, research finds
RBA deputy welcomes ‘considerable’ exchange rate adjustment
Philip Lowe says flexibility of the exchange rate, labour market and monetary policy have helped Australian economy adjust to ‘downswing’ in commodity prices and mining investment
BIS’s Borio says current account obsession obscures important results
Focus on current account imbalances obscures many important – and often counterintuitive – results about global financial flows
Carney says BoE can stay independent in face of globalisation
BoE governor says global factors ‘influence but do not dictate’ policy in speech at Jackson Hole; other economists argue central banks should do more to set policy with global dynamics in mind
Economics needs a ‘replication journal’, paper argues
Natural and life scientists spend considerable time attempting to replicate the results of earlier research; economics could benefit from a similar approach, St Louis Fed paper argues