Economics
IMF staff tell Turkey to fix imbalances
Fund mission says central bank must tighten policy to head off growing external imbalances and inflation; low oil price keeping a lid on problems but longer-term solutions needed
BIS paper finds forecasters put too much faith in private information
‘Noisy information model’ of inflation forecasting implies forecasters put inefficient weightings on private information to differentiate themselves
BIS deputy: animal spirits need stability
Investors need certainty over long-term prospects for sustainable growth, so more short-term stimulus by central banks is likely to make the problem worse, Pereira da Silva says
ECB’s Cœuré: European Fiscal Board can play key role
The newly created European Fiscal Board, as well as independent fiscal councils in eurozone nations, can make ‘decisive contributions’ to policy, Benoît Cœuré says
Kansas Fed researchers bridge gap between forward guidance data and theory
Working paper identifies empirical effects of guidance at the zero lower bound, before finding a standard model of price rigidity largely replicates the results
BIS paper says trade finance impacts global spillovers
Working paper emphasises importance of including trade finance when modelling global shocks, finding variations in price stickiness are important
Issing says eurozone status quo is in danger
Former ECB board member says Europe’s monetary union is still plagued by problems caused by absence of political integration, which could pull the eurozone apart
BIS stats show further retreat in global banking flows
Falling claims on China drive bulk of overall reduction in cross-border claims, but pace of decline slows compared with previous quarter
BoJ research estimates impact of Olympics on growth
Authors suggest Tokyo Olympics will boost Japan’s annual real GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points from 2015-2018, as tourism and construction investment picks up
IMF paper seeks to capture complexity of financial development in new index
Research presents six ‘subindices’ measuring the depth, accessibility and efficiency of financial institutions and markets, which are rolled into an ‘overall measure of financial development’
ECB paper quantifies spillover from sovereign to corporate credit risk
Research studies direct spillover effects using credit default swaps and data on 226 firms from 15 European countries in aftermath of first Greek bail-out
ECB's Cœuré wants ‘corrective arm’ of EU tool used ‘forcefully’
European Central Bank executive board member stresses importance of sustainable rebalancing in the eurozone; wants to see potential of macroeconomic imbalance procedure realised
BoE paper seeks to improve forecasts with adaptive model
Using an adaptive model in conjunction with heavy-tailed t-distributions allows authors to deliver ‘substantial improvements’ in forecasting inflation
Economics in central banking: John Taylor
The Stanford University professor wins this year's economics award for work in designing a global 'rules of the game', at a time when many central banks are demanding deeper co-operation
Spanish paper models synergies between demand and supply policies in monetary union
Working paper model sees benefits in jointly implementing structural reforms in the ‘periphery’ of a union, with fiscal expansion in the ‘core’ and forward guidance on interest rates
Bean says statistics agencies struggling to keep pace with the modern economy
Former BoE deputy warns of a widening gulf between the structure of the economy and how ageing statistical techniques represent it; urges UK statistics office to be more ‘agile’
Real impact of credit booms demands policy rethink, say BIS economists
Financial booms and busts feed through to the real economy via labour reallocations, harming productivity growth; results call for wide-ranging rethink of models and policy, authors say
Flug sets out long-term challenges facing Israeli economy
Increasing productivity growth and tackling issues related to poverty are two main challenges facing the government, central bank governor says
National Bank of Denmark to establish research unit
Central bank looks to bolster analytical work with new unit; advertises for a head of research with a track record of academic achievements and fluency in English to recruit and lead new team
Paper uses Okun’s Law to assess Australian potential output
Discussion paper published by Reserve Bank of Australia estimates potential output growth has fallen from around 5% in the 1970s to 2.9% now
Modern central banks need big data strategy, Riksbank economists say
Central banks need to adapt to growing data volumes, but the organisational changes required could help departments work together more closely, economists say
Bean calls for overhaul of UK statistics
Report dissecting UK statistics production calls for national statistics office to become more agile, make use of new forms of data, and tackle shortcomings
Researchers examine impact of fiscal conditions on long-term rates in OECD
Working paper published by the Bank of Japan analyses 23 member states between 1980 to 2013; finds fiscal conditions impact rates in host of ways
Stevens calls for end to obsession with central forecasts
RBA governor emphasises the uncertainty around forecasting; says he considered abolishing the central line in fan charts