Economics
BIS research tracks changing consumption patterns
Pandemic has led to “catching-up” process in e-commerce, bulletin article says
Bank of Lithuania paper explores spillovers of US policy uncertainty
Authors find “significant recessionary and deflationary effect” and synchronous response worldwide
Higher economic uncertainty is harbinger of civil conflict – Bank of Spain research
Spain suffered rising levels of economic uncertainty leading up to 1936–39 civil war
Terms of trade shocks not symmetric – BoE paper
Developing countries particularly vulnerable to export shocks, study finds
Fed’s Clarida says vaccine rollout has ‘brightened’ 2021 economic outlook
Rising Covid cases are downside in near term, but economy should bounce back, says vice-chair
Firms and households form inflation expectations very differently – paper
Confidence in economy has strongly divergent effects, Central Bank of Ireland research finds
BdF paper looks at fiscal responses to liquidity traps
Infrastructure spending is more robust to model specification changes than sales tax- paper
Pandemic has raised risks for smaller UK financial firms – FCA
Over a fifth of firms responding to survey are at heightened risk of failure, UK regulator says
Macro-prudential policies cut liquidity trap risk – ECB paper
Fall in systematic risk boosts natural interest rate and reduces intensity of liquidity traps, paper finds
The changing data landscape: Part 1
Central Banking speaks to Eyal Rozen, Ramūnas Baravykas and Wanpracha Chaovalitwongse about whether there is a need to change underlying infrastructure to bolster data-driven policy-making
ECB outlines changes to forecasting during Covid
High-frequency data, GDP-at-risk, changes to use of PMI and stringency index all useful, authors say
US may face ‘jobless recovery’ despite huge stimulus
Economists warn fiscal stimulus has been poorly targeted; Ben Bernanke defends Fed policy
Tourism acts as Covid-19 amplifier in the eurozone
Shock is increasing fragmentation risks in the region due to its uneven effect across countries
Atlanta Fed creates new mortgage tool to track forbearance
Dashboard will provide policy-makers with data on which regions are using forbearance in response to Covid-19
Denmark’s central bank says household wealth is higher than pre-Covid
Citizens are wealthier despite Covid-19, but wealth distribution remains uneven
NBER paper seeks lessons for home working in Industrial Revolution
Move to remote working could be undermined by organisational problems, authors warn
Covid-19 likely harms productivity – BoE paper
Private sector could lose 5% of its productivity in Q4 this year, authors estimate
Paper lays groundwork for Canadian ‘Hank’ model
Author estimates “earnings process” as step towards heterogeneous agent modelling
Size matters for central bank research publishing
Staff numbers have strongest association with central banks’ research output
Economics Benchmarks 2020 report – new insights on research, policy and statistics
Benchmarking data sheds light on governance, salaries, forecasting, research, publications and more
Administrative data is most popular alternative data source
Central banks make use of a wide range of non-traditional data sources
Central banks use alt data mainly for research
Almost all respondents make use of alternative data in at least one application
Economists earn more than number-crunchers at central banks
On average, statisticians take home 88% of what economists earn