Economics
Paper models link between policy uncertainty and growth
Bank of Luxembourg paper looks at how investors adjust their estimates of monetary policy
The untapped potential of transaction data
Covid-19 has highlighted the need for central banks to have more timely information, questioning whether high-frequency indicators are being used to their full potential.
Paper examines US pensions’ effects on natural rate
Welfare effects of possible reforms depends on productivity growth, Bank of Italy paper finds
Richmond Fed’s Barkin calls for more vocational training
Tom Barkin says US infrastructure workforce depleted; advocates more immigration
BoE’s Haldane warns against ‘complacency’ on inflation
Chief economist says uncertainty is high but risks are “skewed to the upside”
Bank of Spain paper analyses regulations’ complexity
Researchers present new method for assessing regulations’ structural and linguistic complexity
RBI’s Das: pandemic improved India’s external balance
Boom in software business helped shore up current account and boost RBI reserves, governor says
Book notes: Capital and ideology, by Thomas Piketty
A political pamphlet like Milton’s ‘Areopagitica’, but longer
Bank of Italy paper uses Twitter to track inflation expectations
New method’s data gives a “good real-time proxy” for consumers’ expectations – researchers
BIS paper contrasts firm financing in US and Asia
Authors argue market segmentation drives different patterns of bond and loan financing
How valuable is a PhD economist?
Heads of research from Canada, Israel and North Macedonia weigh the benefits of advanced economics education – and the challenge of retaining top staff
Covid-19 highlighted machine learning model limits – BoE research
Economic downturn could not have been forecast on the basis of data alone, BoE says
Adding QE can fix New Keynesian models – BoE paper
“Mild adjustments” to balance sheet are enough to avoid paradoxical results, authors find
IMF chief economist has ‘no concerns’ over inflation in US
Biden plan likely to cause 2.25% inflation, within Fed’s framework, Gopinath says
Inflation climbs in UK and Canada
Headline figures increased year on year by 0.7% in the UK and 1% in Canada
Kenya strikes deal on $2.4 billion IMF package
“Multi-year effort” required to stabilise public finances and boost growth
Virus impacts consumer credit more than restrictions – Fed paper
“Pandemic itself” was main driver of credit contraction in US, not lockdowns, paper finds
Shadow banks play key role in business cycle – BoE paper
Contraction in securitisation can spill into wider credit conditions, researchers say
Paper finds little evidence of long-term scarring
Richmond Fed research finds short-term demand shocks rarely create hysteresis
Evidence of central bank research bias is ‘mixed’ – RBA paper
Results contrast with another recent study that found bias in research on QE
The changing data landscape: Part 2
Central Banking speaks to Philip Abradu-Otoo, Juan José Ospina and Howard Chang about whether there is a need to change underlying infrastructure to bolster data-driven policy-making
Central banks look to shockproof models in wake of Covid-19
The Covid-19 crisis caused many central bank models to break down. Economists at the St Louis Fed, Bank of Spain and ECB were quick to innovate and say they will continue testing new tools
Frequent recessions push up US unemployment rate – paper
Cleveland Fed research says two decades of growth would produce 3.6% unemployment