Economics
Financial sector still a headache for central bank modellers
Macro-financial links are difficult to integrate into key models, with progress since the global financial crisis slow. But some central banks are making breakthroughs
Mandatory climate disclosures needed now – senior central bankers
Greening monetary policy operations should also be a priority, policy-makers say
‘Run it hot’: the risks and rewards of a new policy era
Covid-19 has added impetus to an emerging intellectual shift in policy-making. But central banks face unresolved issues – on expectations, on fiscal policy, and on the capacity of the economy to ‘run hot’
Eurozone inflation reaches target for first time since 2018
Early estimates suggest HICP inflation hit 2% in May
The Belt and Road Initiative 2021 Survey – The impact of Covid‑19 on the BRI
The fourth annual Belt and Road Initiative survey reveals that the Covid‑19 pandemic has disrupted many projects despite China remaining committed to financing the initiative, which is expected to support future economic growth and environmental…
Inequality can worsen recessions – BIS paper
But authors say there is little evidence that income inequality affects consumption in normal times
Time series models need adapting for Covid-19 shock – ECB paper
Authors explain methods for making Phillips curves and VAR models more robust
IMF proposes $50bn plan to ‘end the Covid-19 pandemic’
“Upfront” financing is needed to accelerate vaccinations, say Georgieva, Gopinath and Agarwal
Energy prices boost eurozone inflation in April
Consumer price index increased year on year by 1.6%, as energy prices increased by 10%
Policymakers should consider adjusting ECB’s target – BdF paper
Lower eurozone r* points to adjustment of monetary policy strategy, researchers find
Fed’s Harker warns US higher education ‘is in peril’
Philadelphia Fed president calls for reforms, as colleges face up to $115 billion in deficits
Danish central bank urges use of payments data in forecasts
Data provides good forecasts during normal times, but deteriorates in stressed conditions
Asset managers should face minimum cash levels – ECB paper
Researchers say macro-prudential measure would improve market allocation of financial resources
BoE paper highlights link between mortgage limits and consumption
Authors find “new link” between down payment requirements and household consumption
Chilean central bank measures country’s carbon footprint
Study aims to create methodology to assess emissions and develop plan to cut footprint
Curbing booms could cut carbon emissions – BIS paper
Overheating economies can misallocate resources to carbon-heavy industry, authors find
Eurozone’s public debt rose sharply in 2020 – official figures
Public debt in the bloc jumped to 98% of GDP in wake of Covid-19, Eurostat says
Black applicants face US mortgage discrimination – Philadelphia Fed paper
Lower approval rate cost Black Americans more than $200 billion between 1994 and 2018
Emerging markets should prepare for higher rates – IMF article
Middle and low-income economies need to anchor fiscal policies after the pandemic is under control
Communities struggle to access stimulus funds – Richmond Fed
Barkin details challenges of getting relief funds to recipients
Biden stimulus will not move inflation much – Chicago Fed paper
Research finds most models predict very limited and short-term increases
MMT rests on ‘untested statements’ – Richmond Fed paper
Authors warn that modern monetary theory rests on shaky foundations
Inflation in Sweden rises to 1.9%
Analysts say stable core inflation means Riksbank is unlikely to tighten policy
Demand for US services likely to rebound- Cleveland Fed survey
Study says US consumers have become more optimistic, except older people