Higher economic uncertainty is harbinger of civil conflict – Bank of Spain research
Spain suffered rising levels of economic uncertainty leading up to 1936–39 civil war
Rising economic uncertainty was strongly linked to growing divisive political issues in Spain in the years leading up to the civil war of 1936–39, new research finds.
A working paper published by the Bank of Spain analyses the archives of two newspapers to assess the evolution of uncertainty in the country over the period 1905–1945. “We find that the outbreak of the civil war in 1936 was anticipated by a striking upward level shift of uncertainty in both newspapers,” say authors Sandra García
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