Unemployment
Fed contemplates change to forward guidance
Minutes from the FOMC’s July meeting show members were divided over the outlook for the US economy, and on the prospect of tinkering with the Fed’s forward guidance
Unemployment strongest predictor of mortgage default in the US
Atlanta Fed research finds that individual unemployment increases the probability of mortgage default by 5 to 13 percentage points compared with average sample
Employment losses have repaired corporate balance sheets, paper argues
Differences in post-crisis employment among EU members are largely driven by need in many countries to adjust balance sheets, according to IMF working paper
BoE’s Weale votes against forward guidance
Martin Weale votes against guidance out of concern for medium-term inflation expectations, while MPC members remain divided over the prospect of more QE
Cleveland Fed’s Pianalto signals willingness to taper
Sandra Pianalto recognises ‘meaningful improvement’ in labour market conditions and outlook; prepared to scale back asset purchases if current pace of progress is maintained
Bank of England ties monetary policy to unemployment
MPC will not raise interest rates or unwind its asset purchases ‘at least until’ the unemployment rate falls below 7%; unlikely to happen within the next three years according to latest forecast
San Fran research links unemployment to business uncertainty
Research produced by the San Francisco Fed finds that business uncertainty over economic policy is an ‘important factor’ behind the persistent levels of unemployment in the US
Fed's Plosser calls for more systematic monetary policy approach
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president Charles Plosser is bullish on the US labour market, calls for QE wind-down
Fed's Stein clarifies unemployment ‘threshold' for rate change
Permanent FOMC voter seeks to provide extra clarity over Bernanke statement last week; emphasises that interest rates could stay at rock-bottom even if unemployment falls to 6.5%
Hungarian inflation bound for 3% target after central bank cuts again
Hungarian National Bank cuts benchmark interest rate by 25bp for 11th successive meeting; forecasts that inflation will pick up in 2014 and hit target the following year
'Furious' jobs increase boosts Bank of Canada’s Poloz
Statistics Canada reports increase of 95,000 jobs in May; Poloz uses first speech in role to call for economic rebalancing and issue warning over low inflation
New York Fed forecasts support continued easing
Staff forecasts predict inflation and unemployment are unlikely to make significant progress toward their target levels in 2013
Portuguese central bank says austerity has hit long-term economic potential
Bank of Portugal annual report finds economy has contracted 7.2% since 2010, thanks to pro-cyclical fiscal contraction that 'may have a long-lasting negative impact on potential growth'
Paper finds pro-cyclical labour market in the great recession
Researchers claim US labour force participation since 2007 violates conventional wisdom on acyclical behaviour
US non-farm payroll stats strengthen case for more QE
Boston Fed president joins calls to continue QE programme as US employment recovery falters
Riksbank report deflects criticism over persistent below-target inflation
Economic commentary says low inflation is partly caused by factors outside the Riksbank’s control; argues tight policy cannot take all the blame for high unemployment
ECB under pressure to act as eurozone unemployment hits new heights
Analysts see growing chance of rate cut as eurozone unemployment rises 10%, while it falls in the rest of the European Union
Central banks need to be wary of ‘new’ monetary policy trends
Policy-makers are reappraising the role of independent central banks pursuing inflation targets. Bernd Braasch1 encourages them to use sound evidence to inform their judgements
San Francisco Fed dissects long-term unemployment
Long-term unemployment has ‘persisted remarkably’ since outset of recession; should disappear over time as economic activity increases
National Bank of Denmark expects recovery
Central bank says domestic demand and GDP growth will improve in 2013; existing unemployment should not have lasting impact
Bank of Spain charts economy’s downward acceleration
Data for fourth quarter show economy continuing to spiral downward, with contractions in growth and demand gaining pace
Bank of Israel paper advocates inflation sacrifice when wages are rigid
Research says controlling inflation requires a greater sacrifice of economic output and employment when there are frictions in the labour market
Book notes: First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America's Prosperity
The author's premise is that the best way to understand the problems confronting the American economy is to go back to the first principles of economic freedom upon which the country was founded
Fed’s Beige Book finds ‘measured’ improvement despite hurricane damage
Survey of economic sentiment maintains cautious optimism in the US in face of hurricane damage and rising fears over ‘fiscal cliff’