Productivity
Low productivity might not be weighing on real rates – research
Long-run correlations imply there is little reason to believe low productivity is associated with low rates, Cleveland Fed economist finds
Productivity puzzles and the neutral rate of interest
Monetary policy frameworks should be subjected to internal and external reviews to ensure they remain fit for purpose
BIS paper studies how weak banks beget zombie firms
Weak banks have a tendency to misallocate capital, authors find, though the effect is only important in the long run, in contrast to earlier studies
AI adoption lag could explain productivity shortfall – research
Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock and Chad Syverson argue the productivity slowdown is not as surprising as it may seem, and there are reasons to be hopeful
Interview: Edward Prescott
The Nobel Prize-winner speaks to Daniel Hinge about time inconsistency and real business cycle theory, and explains why there is no ‘productivity puzzle’
Communication technology helps explain productivity puzzle – Fed paper
Properly accounting for ICT services produces “very large” boost to US labour productivity figures, authors say
OECD urges UK to maintain ‘close ties’ with EU
Latest assessment of UK economy warns of damaging impact of Brexit vote; Ángel Gurría says close future relationship “absolutely key”
Williams: weak productivity, population growth keep rates low
The “new normal” implies a federal funds rate at 2.5%, says San Francisco’s John Williams
Bank of Portugal expects stronger growth in 2017
Exports are expected to boost GDP growth to 2.5% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016
Atlanta’s Bostic ‘sceptical’ about low inflation factors
President of Atlanta Fed is not sure technology and competitive pressures are to blame for prolonged below-target inflation
Central banks may be thinking wrongly about inflation – Borio
BIS economist says inflation may not always and everywhere be a monetary phenomenon, which could help explain why the natural rate is so low
Fiscal stabilisation spurs growth in low fixed-asset sectors - IMF
Those with difficulty raising external funds benefit most from policy, paper argues
Momentum towards inflation target is strengthening, says BoJ board member
Rising household income and productivity are positive signs, Takako Masai says
Latin America lags in use of robotics, but faces same threats
Robots threaten over 50% of jobs across the region, report warns, though they offer an opportunity to boost productivity
UK economy vulnerable to consumption-led recession
Fragile consumer spending could take a toll on growth, former BoE officials warn, leaving the central bank with a tough job ahead
Stanley Fischer analyses the factors behind low real interest rates
The economist emphasises government policy uncertainty in the US regarding health care, regulation, taxes and trade, as well as higher savings and weak investment
Yellen warns of debt impact on productivity
Fed chair states in “strongest possible terms” that the current spending by the US government is unsustainable and could harm productivity
BIS urges policymakers to exploit ‘window of opportunity’
Financial cycles are getting close to turning in many economies and central banks and governments must make sure they are prepared, the BIS warns in its 2017 annual report
Balance sheet weakness and falling investment to blame for productivity slowdown – paper
IMF paper rejects structural hypothesis for slowdown in productivity growth following crisis; firms with balance sheet issues and those hit harder by credit tightening cut back on investment
Uganda will ‘claw back’ losses – Tumusiime-Mutebile
Ugandan governor remains upbeat about the country’s growth, with new figures showing recovery in both the services and industrial sectors; he urges people to ignore pessimistic media reports
Capital deepening ‘virtually absent’ in US and eurozone – ECB
US and eurozone have seen major falls in net investment, an ECB article says
Israel’s Flug: action needed on productivity
Bank of Israel governor warns Israel remains a laggard when it comes to growing output per person
BoJ paper sketches ‘vicious circle’ behind productivity traps
“Lacklustre” economic reforms and firms’ unwillingness to innovate may create a “negatively reinforcing” loop, the authors warn
Boost technology diffusion to solve productivity puzzle – Haldane
BoE’s chief economist says a “long tail” of low-productivity firms need support as they fall further behind a small frontier group