Inflation
Fed officials lower expectations of rate increases
Fed officials forecast rate increase of 50bp this year, compared with 100bp in December; Yellen “wary” of recent increase in headline inflation
Slovenia report simulates effects of structural reforms
Report by local institute, in co-operation with the central bank and OECD, argues the time is “ripe” for structural reform in Slovenia; suggests long-term benefits outweigh short-term costs
Research sheds light on RBNZ concerns over inflation expectations
Article authored by, among others, John McDermott argues the risk of inflation expectations losing their anchor has increased; concerns were a ‘primary motive’ for last week’s rate cut
‘Compositional’ drag on wages set to fade, BoE article finds
Labour force composition has changed markedly in recent years, putting downward pressure on wages, but recent data implies the effect may soon dissipate, researchers say
Venezuela revamps foreign exchange regime
Government moves to exchange rate system, offering an official and floating rate to market participants; second sets of changes in as many years
Inflation target and interest rates about right, UK survey suggest
Median expectations of inflation for 2016 were 1.8%; largest share of UK public says it is best for the economy if interest rates stay where they are
ECB launches ‘comprehensive package’ as inflation outlook worsens
Mario Draghi announces cuts in interest rates and an expansion to the ECB’s asset-purchase programme, as well as a second TLTRO package, larger than the original
Central Bank of Brazil calls for structural reforms
Inflation figures come down, but still nowhere near target range; central bank calls on government to ensure fiscal consolidation in longer-term
IMF’s Viñals announces ‘long and testing to-do list’ for policy-makers
Viñals says the plan for ‘great normalisation’ is more urgent than ever; calls for policy action beyond monetary and financial measures
RBNZ tweaks forecasting models and cuts key rate
Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates by 25bp to 2.25% in attempt to prevent inflation expectations from falling further; updates models in wake of optimistic forecasts
Angola appoints new governor as de Morais departs
Silva takes over from de Morais as part of a government reshuffle; has previously provided counsel to country’s vice-president
IMF welcomes Indian inflation progress, but RBI should ‘stand ready’
IMF welcomes progress made with inflation targeting in India; calls for “growth-friendly” fiscal consolidation to support monetary policy
Central bank models need to adjust to nature of exchange rate pass-through, paper says
Exchange rate pass-through shown to be incomplete, endogenous, nonlinear and asymmetric; working paper seeks to quantify effect over time
External conditions move Bank of Mexico to lower growth forecasts
Central bank cuts growth forecasts for 2016/2017 by half a percentage point; global slowdown starting to have larger impact
Turkey’s Kenç sheds light on central bank ‘roadmap’
Deputy governor tells Central Banking conference that a 'roadmap' of policy changes helps improve confidence in the economy; says the central bank has gained market trust despite independence fears
US monetary policy contraction means drop in global output – paper
Raising interest rates in the US leads to lower global output and inflation in the short term; most 'pronounced' responses evident in the mid-1990s to mid-2000s
Turkish MPC eyes volatility as it prepares move to standardised framework
Decline in volatility will be key factor in move to a narrower interest rate corridor, minutes say; central bank expects disinflation in February after headline figure hit 9.6% in January
Debt deal struck but ‘heated’ discussions await Argentine president in congress
Vulture funds satisfied but Argentine president faces an ‘uphill’ battle getting deal through congress; analysts ultimately expect it to be approved, but see other challenges on the horizon
Snapshot: IMF reveals staff views on Argentina
IMF releases informal briefings compiled 2013-2015 in absence of Article IV; staff highlighted adverse effects of central bank and banking sector financing of government
Colombian inflation measures might be ‘overstating’ true level – research
Some core inflation measures are failing to filter the impact of exchange rate on prices; policy-makers must be aware of the risk of expectations losing their anchor
Dudley flags inflation uncertainty and expectations concern
New York Fed president says uncertainties around his assessment of the inflation outlook have increased; warns of slide in household expectations and stresses need for ‘close scrutiny’
UK will not ‘heal’ if pay and productivity remain ‘stuck’ – BoE deputy
Cunliffe optimistic inflation will return to target as disinflationary pressures fade, also keeping close eye on productivity
BoE officials grilled on weakening sterling
Members of the MPC ask whether the depreciation of the currency will cause the Bank of England to hike; Treasury Committee raises questions over EU referendum
Wage settlements may force Sarb to hike rates further, deputy says
Sarb may look to tighter monetary policy to curtail any second round inflation effects from wage settlements; headline figure already above target range