Inflation
Turkish central bank to conduct ‘extensive studies’ into inflation dynamics
Central Bank of Turkey on the hunt for price stability; bank looking to foster joint effort in improving structural factors
Signs of ‘de-anchoring’ inflation expectations in eurozone – ECB paper
Study finds professional forecasts are paying more attention to ECB inflation projections and less to the target; authors suggest “extensive use of forward guidance” could help
Inflation to fluctuate around bottom of target range, Botswanan report says
Mid-term review paints optimistic picture for inflation in Botswana; loose monetary conditions to contribute to growth in economic activity
Central Bank of Iceland changes course with 50bp cut
Reversal of tightening cycle reflects concern inflation is not rising as expected, in part because of the strength of the króna; growth still forecast to continue above trend
Tightening policy during slowdown is not ideal, but necessary – Sarb governor
More fiscal or monetary stimulus will not generate growth in South Africa, says Kganyago, who instead stresses inflation outcomes need to be lowered
US inflation target within ‘hailing distance’, says Fischer
The Fed is “close” to its targets says vice-chair; despite recent weak GDP figures, Fischer expects investment to recover in coming months
RBNZ better at forecasting growth and inflation than exchange rate, notes study
Economists compare judgement-based forecasts with benchmark set by suite of statistical models, finding judgement tends to work well, but both types of forecast struggle with exchange rates
Goldfajn faces independence test
Ilan Goldfajn has abundant technical skills required to run Brazil's central bank. But he could face similar political pressures as his predecessor at a troubled time for the Brazilian economy.
UK inflation climbs in first post-Brexit data
Prices rose 0.6% in the year to July, the highest inflation number for nearly two years, with signs the effect of the UK’s Brexit vote may be starting to feed through
Blanchard sees reformed DSGE as ‘central’ to future of macroeconomics
Former IMF chief economist says DSGE models are “seriously flawed” but “eminently improvable”, and will have a leading role to play in the future
Asset prices can signal abnormal inflation rates, paper argues
Asset prices can provide warning of forthcoming high or low inflation, a Netherlands Bank working paper says, but transmission times can be “quite long”
Chilean central bank changes guidance and keeps policy on hold
Central Bank of Chile removes reference to continued normalisation as inflation returns to target range; holds benchmark rate at 3.5%
Croatian National Bank sees inflation recovering this year and next
Annual CPI inflation fell to –1.8% in May, but the central bank expects it to pick up in the coming months, eventually rising to 1.2% in 2017
IMF paper examines drivers of India’s disinflation
‘Backward-looking’ expectations and domestic institutional structures amplified shocks, paper says; only 15% of India’s deflation is attributed to a decline in oil price
Rajan hopes new MPC will make next RBI policy statement
Reserve Bank of India keeps rates on hold in Rajan’s last decision before stepping down; he hopes the monetary policy committee will be up and running by next decision in October
BoJ research uses ‘global game’ to explain zero inflation
Model of monopolistic competition implies co-ordination between firms may lead to zero inflation
Brexit a factor in BoJ’s decision to ease – deputy governor
Uncertainties from abroad, notably the UK’s vote to leave the EU, are weighing on the Japanese economy, and were a factor behind “enhanced” easing in July, Kikuo Iwata says
BoE launches broad Brexit response
Central bank wields all its main tools and some new ones as the effects of Brexit begin to appear; aims to support transmission mechanism amid extraordinary measures
IMF paper offers alternative explanation for Venezuelan inflation
Working paper argues fall in oil prices combined with restrictions in foreign exchange best explains hyperinflation in Venezuela, rather than a self-reinforcing rise in expectations
BoJ board members see hope in wages and oil prices – June minutes
Policy board members point to third year of wage rises and higher oil prices as hopeful indications of a turnaround in prices, though expectations are weak and consumer sentiment worsening
IMF urges Abenomics ‘reload’ as BoJ struggles
Fund tells Japanese authorities to be clearer and more systematic in setting policy, as government unveils new stimulus; working paper suggests alternative to helicopter money
Chilean minutes show widespread support for holding policy
Board unanimously votes to hold rates; one member sees tightening cycle ending, while another says lowering rates is “beyond reason”
RBA cuts as housing risks posed by lower rates ‘diminish’
Reserve Bank of Australia cuts by a further 25bp to 1.5%, after annual CPI inflation drops to 1% in June; growth in lending for housing has "slowed a little"
Dutch paper explores information content of asset prices for inflation
Working paper finds high asset prices can be an indicator of either high or low inflation, though more commonly the former; considers information content of range of financial variables