Inflation
Monetary aggregates useful as eurozone inflation predictor – paper
“Predictive content” of monetary aggregates has improved since 2012, ECB paper says
Graeme Wheeler to stand down this year
RBNZ governor will not seek a second term; deputy to take interim role as succession process complicated by elections
Angola disregards IMF advice on exchange rate overhaul
Angolan authorities disagree with IMF over suggested exchange rate framework changes but agree to a banking sector clean-up
Mongolia sees hope of recovery after rough year
The commodity reliant country faced slowing growth and inflation in 2016, but the outlook for this year is somewhat brighter
Energy base effects pushing recent eurozone inflation – ECB
Effect estimated to be negative for much of second half of 2017
Only ‘gradual’ increases in interest rates on the cards at the Fed
FOMC members think only “gradual” adjustments to monetary policy are warranted; current pace will strengthen the labour market and see inflation rise
BoJ ups growth forecast after Trump shock
Improvements in overseas economies and yen weakness prompt central bank to revise up its growth forecast, though inflation is largely unchanged; policy remains on hold
Italian inflation pressures are weakening – ECB paper
Price cuts are more common for manufactured goods, the researchers say, while price increases for services are slowing
Tight policy keeping a lid on inflation – Central Bank of Iceland
“Steep” pay increases and rising house prices keep the central bank on alert; report warns the situation could easily change
ECB papers examine low inflation
Researchers differ over eurozone inflation expectations
Protectionist ‘threats’ from US could harm emerging markets – Kganyago
International concerns high on Sarb’s list at latest MPC discussion; uncertainty surrounding US economic policy leads to revision of headline inflation forecast
Bank of Canada re-modelling export links to US – Poloz
Previous approach may have over-estimated importance of US when modelling exports, governor says; uncertainties over US fiscal policy makes forecasting challenging
Yellen: Fed expects rates to hit long-run level by end-2019
Fed chair warns there could be a “nasty surprise” down the road if policymakers wait too long to raise rates
Money targeting key to Egypt reform programme
Central bank to maintain flexible exchange rates and keep a close rein on the money supply as IMF pledges $12 billion support
Inflation is ‘simply not a problem’ – Dudley
New York Fed governor not worried about risks to inflation given recent data and expects current economic expansion to continue for the foreseeable future
Central Bank of Brazil discussed smaller hike at December meeting
Copom weighed a 50bps cut, but chose to “frontload” monetary easing, given anchored expectations and promising outlook for inflation
BIS paper presents evidence on Uruguayan price setting
Authors develop survey-based measure of firms’ price-setting behaviour, which may prove useful for research on other emerging markets
Carney: 250,000 jobs lost by 2018 if BoE had not acted after Brexit vote
BoE governor defends 2016 action by underlining policy trade-off, but warns consumers are "looking through" Brexit-related uncertainties
Harker optimistic in first speech as FOMC voting member
Inflation target set to be met this year, says Philadelphia Fed governor, noting labour force participation issues need to be addressed with legislative action
Brazil ups pace of easing as inflation drops
Size of cut surprises observers, though inflation proves more favourable than expected; rates still rising in real terms
Defence and diversification key to fund success – HKMA deputy
Exchange fund is to continue diversifying into industries that can “counter” inflationary pressures, Yue says, as a challenging investment environment looks set to continue
Thai governor calls for rethink of monetary policy frameworks
New structure should systematically acknowledge the negative impact of monetary policy; Santiprabhob recognises macroprudential cannot take all the strain
Global value chains increasingly driving global inflation – BIS paper
Growth of global value chains limits the importance of domestic factors in creating inflation, complicating the jobs of central banks
Echavarría takes over at Central Bank of Colombia
Former board member central bank takes office as economy is expected to recover from commodity slowdown; biggest challenge will be tackling high inflation