BoE paper proposes nowcast method for GDP revisions
Dynamic factor model reveals information on how early estimates may be revised, authors say
Research published by the Bank of England outlines a method of nowcasting GDP growth that can account for revisions to early estimates.
In the staff working paper, Nikoleta Anesti, Ana Beatriz Galvão and Silvia Miranda-Agrippino note it is hard when nowcasting to choose between using timely but incomplete early estimates of growth, or waiting for the more complete final figures. They attempt to solve this issue using what they call a “release-augmented” dynamic factor model.
By incorporating
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