Research
PSPP’s effects became significant after expansion – Irish paper
Paper examines responses of Ireland-domiciled investment funds
BIS paper links debt service lag to impact on real economy
Authors find the lag between borrowing and peak debt service helps explain why debt booms reduce future output and increase the probability of a crisis
Some outflows from China may have been ‘disguised’ – Fed paper
China’s success reducing current account surplus may partly have been due to financial outflows disguised as “travel”, Fed economist finds
Model looks at outbreak of ‘fire sales’
Higher capital ratios may aggravate financial contagion, the authors say
BIS paper: forces driving global liquidity are shifting
Paper examines factors behind changing patterns of global liquidity, finding improved prudential standards have cut volatility
BoE economist sees monetary policy benefits to demonetisation
Removal of high-denomination notes could help central bankers maintain policies of low inflation and interest rates near the zero lower bound
Co-operation matters for macro-prudential impact – BIS paper
Gains from co-operation can be large but asymmetric benefits could create political economy problems, authors say
Income is an important factor for housing demand in Turkey – paper
Profitability of housing investment in Turkey fell in 2003–14; Ceritoğlu suggests drop in home ownership is down to relative price changes
ECB paper calls for EU-wide bond-issuing agency
Authors propose the ECB and a bond issuer should work together to stimulate eurozone
Term premiums matter for inflation – BoJ paper
Term premiums domestically and abroad appear to affect inflation via the exchange rate channel, authors find
Paper explores effects of capital controls on cost of international debt
Restrictions on capital inflows produce “substantial” corporate bond spreads but effects are mitigated for firms in EU or with English legal origins
BoE paper tackles multidimensional tail risk forecasting
Researchers set out method that can capture the multiple sources of risk feeding into a tail event and help understand how risks interact
Obstfeld and Taylor back dual trilemma global finance theory
Economists still need to better incorporate financial stability into their thinking, the authors argue, with the concept of a financial trilemma helping to explain recent instability
Surprise policy announcements impact cash demand and consumption - paper
Unanticipated policy announcements can significantly reduce a consumer's monthly ATM withdrawals
Culture has ‘significant’ effect on Swiss saving – paper
Researcher uses data from linguistically different Swiss groups
‘Home bias’ in expectations heightens shocks – paper
Researchers present a model where domestic variables shape expectations
Chinese monetary policy now more in line with G3 central banks – BIS paper
“Liberalisation and transformation” of the Chinese economy has led to changes in the PBoC’s monetary policy rule, and an improvement in inflation performance, authors say
Irish paper examines why banks set collateral conditions
Ex-ante risk and loan size are key factors, researchers say
Riksbank paper studies impact of oil on world business cycle
Researchers find possible solution to macro puzzles by introducing oil shocks into a model of the global economy
Balance sheet weakness and falling investment to blame for productivity slowdown – paper
IMF paper rejects structural hypothesis for slowdown in productivity growth following crisis; firms with balance sheet issues and those hit harder by credit tightening cut back on investment
Policy rate forecasts influence expectations – Riksbank paper
New data allows researcher to assess the “potency” of rate forecasts, which do appear to influence expectations
Paper examines how sovereign debt losses hit real economy
Researcher presents unique database on eurozone sovereign debt crisis
Riksbank paper finds ‘significant’ gains from faster trading
Faster trading systems have eliminated arbitrage opportunities, improving market efficiency and quality, authors say
ECB paper classifies eurozone banks’ business models
Researchers use supervisory data to outline models’ risk and performance