Paper’s forecasting technique using Markov-switching models
Results outperform Fed’s survey of professional forecasters, says Bank of Spain paper
A working paper published by the Bank of Spain presents a number of methods for averaging the predictive results of non-linear models, and applies them to data from the US.
In Model averaging in Markov-switching models: predicting national recessions with regional data, Pierre Guérin and Danilo Leiva-Leon introduce what they call “new weighting schemes to combine discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models”.
A large literature combines results from linear forecasting models, but
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economics
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – model banks analysis
Additional data breakdowns reveal patterns based on staffing and development
Demographics could trigger closures of US universities – study
Research by Philly Fed says fewer young people are enrolling, which is adding to financial pressures
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – executive summary
The benchmark drills into model design features as well as staffing, research and AI
Economics Benchmarks 2024 report – making models work
The benchmarks this year include more granular details on key model design features
ADB approves $500 million loan to Indonesia
Policy-based facility focuses on expanding vulnerable groups’ access to financial services
US inflation expectations tick up across all time horizons
NY Fed survey finds more respondents expect prices to rise over one- three- and five-year timeframes
China’s inflation drops to five-month low, despite stimulus
Some analysts expect PBoC to deliver further cuts in rates and RRRs by end of 2025
Fed’s latest Beige Book reports modest growth across US
Boston was only branch to report decreased activity since October