Research
IMF paper offers advice on transition to inflation-targeting regimes
Guide to switching monetary policy regime recommends gradual approach to ‘buy time’ for central bank adaptation
BoJ paper sees signs of structural shift in pricing behaviour
Study finds rising exchange rate pass-through is in large part the result of a change in firms’ pricing behaviour, although why behaviour has changed remains unclear
San Francisco Fed research examines easing impact of Swiss reserves expansion
SNB asset purchases focused on short maturities still pushed down longer maturity yields, researchers find, which they say holds lessons for eurozone QE
German life insurers vulnerable to interest rate shock, research warns
Discussion paper finds life insurers could have experienced a policyholder run in 2013 if interest rates had risen 2.1 percentage points; says QE might make it hard for insurers to protect themselves
IMF paper: Indian monetary policy transmission is improving
Working paper examines credit channel of monetary policy in India, finding ‘significant, albeit slow’ transmission to the real economy and a gradual improvement over the past few years
Chatham House paper tries to quantify Syrian economic breakdown
Devastation from war, displacement of millions and oil and gas production falling into the hands of Isis and Kurdish forces have combined to create economic disaster
IMF paper finds foreign investor base crucial for EM sensitivity to shocks
Working paper finds emerging markets that rely more on international funds and global banks are more sensitive to ‘global push factors’ such as US monetary policy
NBER paper seeks better model of trend inflation
James Stock and Mark Watson use disaggregated data on sectoral inflation with time-varying weights, finding this can produce a more accurate model of inflation’s long-term trend
IMF paper says ‘one size does not fit all’ with macro-prudential frameworks
Working paper examines use of macro-prudential policy in Hong Kong, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore and Sweden
ECB paper tests systemic risk using ‘VAR for VaR’ model
Researchers use quantile regression in attempt to better account for outliers, which they say could have applications for stress testing
German inequality would fall with US-style home ownership, Bundesbank study shows
Discussion paper fits US home ownership structure to German economy, finding large changes in the distribution and median level of wealth
Norges Bank research reverse-engineers model of US housing crashes
Researchers test a variety of models for their fit with evidence on US housing booms and busts, finding formation of household expectations by moving average performs best
Overconfident forecasters may be ‘overrepresented’ in ECB survey
Working paper finds participation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters drops when uncertainty rises, suggesting the results may be biased
BoE minutes help markets shape expectations, paper finds
Working paper published by ECB finds markets make use of minutes when forming short-term expectations, but relationship breaks down over longer horizons
Cleveland Fed economists cautious over use of Taylor rule
Research emphasises the difficulty in measuring potential output and the natural rate of unemployment accurately and urges policy-makers to ‘take care’ when using the rule
ECB paper emphasises productivity's role in export elasticity
Authors find a range of factors matter when assessing the response of exports to changes in the exchange rate, including productivity and both the type and magnitude of shocks
ECB paper examines financial exposure in eurozone
Working paper finds eurozone investors are ‘overexposed’ to securities issued within the region, more so in the case of ‘low-rating economies’
IMF paper urges central banks to adopt sharia-compliant facilities
Authors warn lack of sharia-compliant monetary policy tools is hampering efficient liquidity management among Islamic banks, but is an area that requires further research
BoJ paper outlines idea of ‘natural yield curve’
Curve defines level of natural rate of interest at all maturities; authors suggest it provides a ‘useful benchmark’ for the conduct of monetary policy
New euro banknotes go down well in the Netherlands
Study conducted for the Netherlands Bank finds new €5 and €10 banknotes are more popular than their predecessors, though familiarity with design features remains low
Riksbank paper measures impact of debt-to-income limits
Report weighs the costs and benefits of debt-to-income limits, finding they can be effective in tackling debt and are likely to have a ‘relatively small’ macroeconomic effect
Assessing risks from household debt is a complex task, Riksbank study finds
Economic commentary says risks in household sector seem high, but assessing them properly depends on a host of factors that keep changing and data that may not be available
BoE paper questions dominance of Normal distribution
Using the t distribution and time-varying variance improves a vector autoregression’s fit with the data and forecasting performance, researchers find
IMF paper argues technological slowdown not main driver of weak productivity
Working paper finds slower US productivity growth is more due to reduced efficiency in combining factors of production than a declining pace of technological progress