Research
IMF paper offers Uruguay advice on money supply targeting
Move to new monetary policy target has proved ‘challenging’ IMF researchers note, offering advice on how to make the framework more effective
Belgian paper examines ‘crisis-proof’ services
Working paper finds ‘significant’ differences between the elasticity of goods exports and services exports with respect to GDP growth during the crisis
Dutch paper contradicts ‘conventional view’ on fiscal adjustments
Working paper cannot rule out that increasing revenues is just as effective at bringing about fiscal adjustment as spending cuts
Dutch paper compares measures of systemic risk with market perceptions
Working paper notes the need for ‘careful consideration’ of the impact of prudential policies on both bank risk and systemic risk
IMF paper: commodity prices are largely demand-driven
Working paper explores systemic risk, aggregate demand and commodity prices, finding the latter to be largely demand-driven, a conclusion they extend to non-core inflation
Italian paper explores wage and unemployment relationship
Occasional paper stresses the choice of measures for the change in wage rates has ‘important consequences for the results’
Bundesbank paper tracks causes of financial crisis balance sheet contraction
Working paper identifies characteristics and behaviour that had a dampening effect on German banks during the 2008 crisis, noting the importance of taking a nuanced view
IMF paper offers advice on Asian financial integration
Authors suggest improvements to the sharing of information, trade integration, capital market development and a common regulatory framework to improve financial integration in Asia
IMF researchers find FX interventions can help tackle pressures from global capital flows
Working paper penned by team including Olivier Blanchard takes new approach to endogeneity problems, finding foreign exchange interventions can stem appreciation pressures from global flows of capital
Bank of Italy sees credit conditions improving
Economic bulletin notes the ability of banks to borrow cheap funds from the ECB is helping improve conditions, but stock of NPLs is still holding back lending growth
Greek paper shows ‘vicious circle’ between political corruption and tax evasion
Working paper finds ‘strategic complementarities’ between citizens and politicians in model, noting ‘strong moral values’ can help boost policies aimed at deterring tax evasion
Dutch bulletin: T2S can only succeed if ‘many’ CSDs sign up
The Netherlands Bank's latest bulletin highlights the importance of more CSDs in Europe signing up to the Target2-Securities platform since the initial migration in June
Colombian paper paints nuanced picture of bank risk and efficiency link
Researchers find some efficiency gains from better capitalisation, but results differ depending on whether a bank is large or small, domestic or foreign
BoJ paper finds short and long-term expectations are anchored differently
Inflation expectations respond differently to changes in policies and inflation depending on whether they are short- or long-term, researchers find
Minneapolis Fed research separates Greece and Puerto Rico debt crises
Staff report notes the debt crisis has spilled over to the private sector in Greece but not in Puerto Rico, given the latter’s inability to interfere with private external debt contracts
IMF paper identifies countries that ‘pass through’ spillovers
Individual countries can amplify, absorb or block spillovers, depending on their economic and structural characteristics, researchers at the IMF find
ECB paper finds periphery most affected by credit shortage
Peripheral economies appear to suffer a greater slowdown of productivity than their northern neighbours when facing a squeeze on credit, research published by the ECB finds
Richmond Fed paper examines relationship between deregulation and innovation
Working paper uses a dynamic equilibrium model to look at ATM and debit card industry in US; offers generalised findings on relationship across financial services industry
Philadelphia Fed paper highlights bounce-back in credit card spending
Discussion paper analyses data from Visa Payment Panel Study, finding credit card spending has recovered from a recession-related dip, while growth in debit card spending is slowing
IMF senior counsel explores legal frameworks for public debt management
Senior counsel at IMF’s legal department discusses the many trade-offs involved in designing the legal frameworks underpinning public debt management
SNB paper: both monetary and macro-prudential policy impact arrears
Working paper suggests monetary policy impacts the affordability problems that drive arrears in the short term, while macro-prudential policy can help prevent longer-term problems
IMF paper finds leaning against the wind can work, but it is not optimal
Researchers conclude monetary policy can be used to reduce systemic risks if other, more targeted policy options are unavailable, but macro-prudential policy produces better outcomes
IMF paper weighs impact of low rates on instability
Working paper suggests the ineffective regulatory framework in the US was more to blame for the occurrence and severity of the crisis than low interest rates
ECB research flags signs of Spanish decoupling
Recent recessions appear to have caused Spain’s economy to diverge from those of other major eurozone countries, working paper warns