Research
GDP lag overcome with nowcasting, Sarb paper says
Nowcasting will assist policy-makers understand path of real economic activity, authors say, finding model outperforms others significantly
NBIM reports clarify demands for high ethical standards
Norwegian SWF expects firms it invests in to address a broad range of long-term risks, including the need to meet high ethical standards; publishes expectations document on human rights
Market discipline ‘key pillar’ of RBNZ toolkit, article says
Article in latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand bulletin insists new requirements have not come at the expense of market discipline – they are both ‘key pillars’ of regulatory toolkit
Low income households ‘highly’ vulnerable to changes in interest rates, paper shows
Banks and regulators require the use of ‘richer’ information to understand consumer debt, a Central Bank of Chile paper finds; new model would help evaluate economic policies
BIS paper finds forecasters put too much faith in private information
‘Noisy information model’ of inflation forecasting implies forecasters put inefficient weightings on private information to differentiate themselves
Distribution of liquidity can impact monetary policy transmission, paper finds
Research published by Norges Bank encourages central banks to pay attention to the distribution of liquidity in the interbank market, as well as its overall level
Negative commodity price shocks weaken EM financial sectors, IMF paper argues
The financial sectors of resource-rich emerging economies are vulnerable to negative commodity price shocks, working paper argues; better policy can increase resilience
BoE paper suggests action when markets unsure about macro-prudential policy
BoE economists say policy-makers should be more active in times of uncertainty in the private sector, suggesting it need not make them "more cautious"
Responses to commodity shocks only have ‘small’ impact on investment, paper finds
Flexible inflation-targeting frameworks and exchange rates are ‘essential’ to limit the macroeconomic impact of commodity price volatility
Bank of Italy growth indicator ticks up
Italian central bank’s ‘timely’ index shows eurozone GDP growth continuing in December, with the indicator reaching triple its level of a year ago
Floating exchange rate has led to more volatility, Norwegian paper says
Moving to inflation targeting regime prompted rise in volatility in nominal exchange rates, research says; no depreciation or appreciation trends evident, however
Haircuts on sovereign debt ‘open the door for more leverage’, research finds
Prolonged low interest rates also contribute to an overleveraged economy in case of crisis; though in times of ‘low crisis’ they can help decelerate fiscal adjustment
BIS paper finds investors take simplistic approach to emerging market risks
Authors find investors seem to divide countries based not on fundamentals but on whether they are deemed an emerging market
Dutch paper explores price level dispersion
‘Idiosyncratic shocks’ have greater impact on price level dispersion within the eurozone than in the US, authors say
Research analyses Irish banks’ connections to global financial system
An article in the latest Central Bank of Ireland quarterly bulletin maps the networks formed by Irish banks’ connections to each other and to the global financial system
Turkish inflation seen returning to 5% in 2018
Latest projections from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey suggest headline inflation will only return to target in 2018, after it overshot October forecasts, rising to 8.8%
Kansas Fed researchers bridge gap between forward guidance data and theory
Working paper identifies empirical effects of guidance at the zero lower bound, before finding a standard model of price rigidity largely replicates the results
BIS paper says trade finance impacts global spillovers
Working paper emphasises importance of including trade finance when modelling global shocks, finding variations in price stickiness are important
Reserve accumulation can be inflationary, ECB paper says
Working paper examines the allocation of special drawing rights in 2009 to separate out the inflationary effects stemming from an increase in the monetary base and moral hazard
BoJ research estimates impact of Olympics on growth
Authors suggest Tokyo Olympics will boost Japan’s annual real GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points from 2015-2018, as tourism and construction investment picks up
BoJ regional research divisions see ‘moderate’ recovery
Nine regions report the economy has ‘continued to grow’, often at a ‘moderate’ pace, in the past three months; some note impact from emerging markets slowdown on exports and production
IMF paper seeks to capture complexity of financial development in new index
Research presents six ‘subindices’ measuring the depth, accessibility and efficiency of financial institutions and markets, which are rolled into an ‘overall measure of financial development’
ECB paper quantifies spillover from sovereign to corporate credit risk
Research studies direct spillover effects using credit default swaps and data on 226 firms from 15 European countries in aftermath of first Greek bail-out
Bundesbank paper explores interbank market functionality during crisis
The German interbank market did not fail, per se, in the 2007-8 financial crisis, a Bundesbank discussion paper argues; bank fundamentals determined ability to roll over interbank positions