Overconfident forecasters may be ‘overrepresented’ in ECB survey
Participation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters drops when uncertainty rises
There is a risk of overconfident participants being "overrepresented" in the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters, according to a working paper published by the organisation on June 15.
In his paper, Does uncertainty affect participation in the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters?, Víctor López-Pérez finds an increase in macroeconomic uncertainty reduces the level of participation.
This means the survey may be less informative during periods of
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