Research
IMF paper lays out new capital controls dataset
IMF working paper presents new dataset of capital control restrictions on both inflows and outflows of 10 categories of assets for 100 countries between 1995 and 2013
RBA paper finds only weak support for sticky information Phillips curve
Paper provides ‘first estimates’ of a sticky information Phillips curve for Australia, finding the curve fits poorly with the inflation-targeting era but better in earlier years
Bank of Mexico paper warns of EM bond runs
Paper stresses vulnerability in face of Fed lift-off, even with low levels of leverage, noting mechanisms essentially unrelated to degree of leverage can determine financial stability
‘Unbanked’ numbers fall 20%, World Bank study finds
First update to the Global Findex database finds 700 million adults worldwide became new account holders since 2011, but two billion remain without access to basic financial services
Portuguese paper analyses crisis impact on union agreements
Bank of Portugal working paper evaluates changes in union agreements since the crisis, finding they have reduced due to ‘downward nominal wage rigidity in deflationary times’
Spanish paper finds LTROs had ‘moderate’ effect
Working paper examines the impact of two ‘very long-term refinancing operations’ conducted in 2011 and 2012, finding evidence of a bank lending channel
Dallas Fed studies debt impact on exchange rate fluctuations
Countries that are most vulnerable to a sudden shift in capital inflows and a sudden fall in the capital account have ‘a large stock of net non-foreign direct investment external liabilities’
Dutch paper finds public campaigns can boost debit card use
Working paper examines a campaign run in the Netherlands in 2007, finding it led to debit card use increasing by 2%; effects most prominent at early stage of campaign
Spanish paper analyses financial innovation in sovereign debt
Working paper published by the Bank of Spain studies how financial innovation in sovereign debt markets can increase a country’s level of private investment and welfare
Colombian paper studies policy impact on ‘fragile’ banks
Combination of macro-prudential tools such as pro-cyclical capital requirements and monetary policy is “well suited” to containing the effects of a downturn, study finds
Finnish paper explains why bank runs are sometimes partial
Discussion paper published by the Bank of Finland explains why bank runs in a situation where deposits are back with a government guarantee sometimes remain partial
IMF paper proposes refinements to potential output estimation
Researchers use an adapted ‘multivariate filter’ that aims to improve upon other methods of estimating potential output, although they admit the result is probably only the ‘least worst’ option
Fed research: Three channels of shadow banking fragility
Working paper models the increased fragility created by shadow banks, even though they provide higher levels of credit to the economy
ECB research assesses fiscal impact of bailouts
ECB paper analyses the impact on a government’s fiscal position of assistance measures; finds majority of the financial needs (4.9% of 5.1% of GDP) were recorded is first three crisis years
Chilean paper analyses unemployment’s impact on wages
The impact of unemployment spells on wages is high, but the volatility ‘increases much more during recessions’, research finds
Bank of Finland paper tests price-level based forward guidance
Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra use ‘adaptive learning’ approach to show price-level targeting can outperform inflation targeting under some circumstances
Chilean paper calls on policy-makers to consider source of shocks
Policy-makers in Chile ‘have to take into account the source of the shock when evaluating possible policy options’ in response to copper price shocks, research finds
Colombian paper analyses intraday liquidity needs
Intraday liquidity risks can be ‘mitigated or even eliminated’ if entities have higher opening balances than the balances required to opportunely liquidate all payment obligations, paper finds
Solomon Islands research illuminates inflation sources in small islands
Working paper finds domestic factors are mainly behind inflation outcomes, with the exchange rate only having a temporary impact; economy takes around a year to bounce back from shocks
Expectations have variable impact, finds ECB paper
Working paper suggests there have been ‘significant changes’ in the degree to which expectations have driven unemployment, with a particularly large effect during 2008 financial crisis
Fed paper measures damage from capital flow surges
Researchers find surging capital flows push labour away from manufacturing, create sudden booms and recessions, and do more damage if there is a sudden reversal
Romer and Romer find financial crisis impact ‘not large’
NBER working paper constructs new series on financial distress in advanced economies to better capture degrees of financial crisis; finds output declines are ‘moderate and largely temporary’
Riksbank’s new approach to nowcasting reviewed
Article in Economic Review evaluates the forecasting performance of a dynamic factor model adopted by Sweden's central bank, finding it a useful addition to its suite of tools
Risks in commercial property have fallen, RBNZ research finds
Article in latest RBNZ bulletin finds less leverage is being used to fund new purchases and developments, while market is showing signs of a ‘robust’ recovery