No significant risk of US recession – St Louis Fed research
Sahm Rule and leading economic data indicate low – but not zero – recession risk
Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis says there is not a significant risk of a recession in the US.
The analysis uses data compiled by economists Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger. The figures are designed to give a reliable estimate of recession risk, and have tended to closely track previous US recessions.
“The data set is based on economic data that tend to lead business cycle indicators – that is, they provide insight before the other data do,” says the St Louis Fed blog post
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