Macroeconomics
Brexit may have cost the UK 5% of productivity – BoE paper
Study draws on newly developed survey of decision-makers at UK firms
Inflation edges higher as Fed prepares for next meeting
Consumer spending boosts economy, but recent sentiment data suggests it could be about change
BoE policy-makers face fallout from political chaos
November policy decision could be unveiled on an election day; new analysis by MPC members suggests worst economic impact yet to come
Economists publish ‘crash course’ on euro crisis
Brunnermeier and Reis say framework is designed to help students grasp the macro-financial roots of recent crises
Summers and Stansbury warn of ‘black hole’ as central bankers debate solutions
Economists say they hope for revolutionary thinking at Jackson Hole conference – “but we are not holding our breath”
Anticipation of fiscal stimulus has ‘sizeable’ impact on growth – paper
Passing the 2018 US Bipartisan Budget Act increased GDP by 1%, researchers find
Inflation target uncertainty magnifies price shocks’ impact- BoI paper
Researchers investigate effects of central banks failing to pefectly follow targets
Shale oil boom has not shifted global supply- ECB paper
Global oil supply appears to be “rather vertical” at all times, researchers find
BoE under pressure with July inflation release
Bank of England must deal with recent fall in GDP and Brexit uncertainty
Higher inflation expectations can cut consumption – research
Authors conduct randomised control trial to test “forward guidance puzzle”
Climate change will hit US growth hard – Dallas Fed study
US growth could fare worse than China’s with projected temperature rises, researchers find
BoE faces bleak outlook as new prime minister appointed
Think-tank says UK may already be in recession, as threat of “no-deal” Brexit looms
Ethiopia needs to rebalance after investment boom – IMF Africa chief
Country has achieved impressive development but vulnerabilities have grown, says Abebe Aemro Selassie
BoE paper questions technological explanations for falling ‘labour share’
Measurement problems may account for less income seeming to flow to workers, authors say
BIS paper looks at low returns on safe assets
Changing risk perceptions explain growing wedge between safe and risky assets, authors say
‘Heterogeneous beliefs’ can improve models of inflation – BoE paper
Authors break down inflation expectations in search of additional forward-looking information
Lagarde reiterates call for greater international co-ordination
“We need a trading system fit for today’s world,” IMF chief says after G20 summit
Canada facing broad-based inflationary pressures, data suggests
Some analysts say immediate rate hikes unlikely despite price rises
Akerlof warns economics is biased against methods seen as ‘soft’
Nobel prize-winner says bias leads to “sins of omission” in economic research
Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed
Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say
Putting modern monetary theory to the test
Sayuri Shirai asks whether MMT might hold the solution to Japan’s stagnation
Finnish researchers propose new crisis indicator
Bank of Finland paper compares short term credit-to-GDP ratio to "Basel gap"
Barbados central bank hopeful for international business rebound
Sector suffered after sanctions imposed due to country’s low tax rates
‘Uncertainty shocks’ can do long-term harm – BoE paper
Authors outline a general equilibrium model to show uncertainty can have long-run effects