Macroeconomics
US labour force participation driven by fewer outflows – San Fran Fed researcher
Hot economy could be making workers less likely to leave labour force, Regis Barnichon says
BoE’s Ramsden highlights unusual patterns of investment and hiring
Weak investment in capital could exacerbate UK’s productivity woes, deputy says
BoE’s Broadbent: constant Brexit delays are hurting investment
Deputy governor blames “repeated series of cliff edges” for poor UK investment
Cambodian central bank voices concerns over possible Chinese spillovers
Central bank fears a sharp drop in property market could trigger financial system risks
RBNZ paper hunts cause of flattening Phillips curve
Paper explores trend of declining relationship between inflation and economic activity
Bank of Italy paper looks at impact of long-term rates
Long-term rates have significant impact on Italian banks’ risk appetite, researchers find
Strong dollar is weighing on trade – BIS’s Shin
Advanced-economy monetary policy may have made the problem worse, he says
Cooling economic activity in China paves way for more stimulus
Policy-makers may turn to fiscal stimulus rather than monetary easing
IMF staff strike deal for $6 billion Pakistan bailout
Mission chief says central bank should focus on inflation control and exchange rate flexibility
Market power is a ‘puzzle’, BoE team says
Micro and macro evidence do not seem to match up, the authors say
Trump’s tariffs aren’t hurting eurozone yet, says ECB
Economists warn of danger to US in escalating trade war
China’s Q1 GDP beats expectations on surging industrial production
But the recovery may not prove durable, economists warn
Chinese inflation rebounds amid easing of monetary policy
CPI hits 2.3% in March, the highest level in five months, while PPI reverses its declining trend since late 2017
IMF cuts growth forecasts for most economies
Japan and China are the only two to receive a more optimistic outlook from the IMF; global economy at a “delicate moment”, says Gita Gopinath
BoJ downgrades economic outlook as regional growth disappoints
Haruhiko Kuroda remains positive and says robust domestic demand could offset some of the weaknesses in exports
US wage growth ‘possibly double’ what is reported – Dallas Fed
Researchers use dataset that includes those who move house to calculate wage growth
Lower unionisation ‘unlikely to account for’ low wage growth
In Australia, share of employees covered by wage agreements negotiated remains stable, RBA researchers find
Ageing workforce depresses wage inflation – BIS paper
Demographic change could be behind weakness of inflation despite record-low unemployment
Borio questions Larry Summers on ‘secular stagnation’
Two teams of economists present fresh evidence for divergent views of low real rates
Summers and Rachel set out fresh evidence on secular stagnation
Policy-makers may need to rethink their approach in a world of ultra-low real rates, authors say
Non-financial firms finance the economy – BIS paper
Authors find non-financial firms act as important intermediators and take on forex risks
BoE economists find CBDC could permit helicopter money
Helicopter drop could be feasible without losing control of rates but may still be unwise, authors say
Europe’s ‘zombie lending’ harmed recovery – BoE paper
Forbearance appears to harm output, investment and total factor productivity, paper finds
Trade tensions could ripple among South-east Asian nations – Menon
Rising leverage ratios a key risk for EM Asia, but the region is more resilient