Macroeconomics
Trade tensions could ripple among South-east Asian nations – Menon
Rising leverage ratios a key risk for EM Asia, but the region is more resilient
China resorts to fiscal policy to stimulate slowing economy
China says it plans more fiscal stimulus while maintaining prudential monetary policy
BIS book outlines macro-financial policy framework
“Integrated inflation targeting” would combine policies for maximum effect, authors say
Book notes: Where economics went wrong, by David Colander and Craig Freedman
Chicago economics’ gladiatorial debating style has cost the discipline dearly, the authors argue
Trump’s tariffs may have caused inflation – researchers
Estimates indicate tariffs may have already contributed 0.1 percentage points to CPI, authors find
Polarised labour market has left low-skilled workers vulnerable – research
Technology and globalisation have hit wages of less skilled urban workers, says David Autor
SBP launches Islamic facility to fund renewables and SMEs
Central bank looks to supply liquidity to key industries
Chinese lending hits all-time high in January
Total social financing reached roughly 240% of China’s GDP at end of month
Low rates can harm productivity, say Liu, Mian and Sufi
Low rates may end up discouraging investment across the economy, authors say
‘Global inflation gap’ points to slack across advanced economies – paper
Authors find no evidence that inflation is “on the brink of surging ahead”
Ageing population is deflationary – HKMA paper
Deflationary pressures “should not be ignored”, economist says
BoJ cuts inflation forecast in fourth consecutive outlook report
Central bank maintains interest rates and yield curve control
Key Brexit vote complicates outlook for UK economy
Vote this evening leaves UK’s political and economic future uncertain; analysts optimistic on outlook for sterling
Low US unemployment unlikely to foster sudden wage growth – research
Fed projections see unemployment rate falling to 3.5% by the end of 2019
Bank of Israel calls on government to reduce deficit
Budget imbalance is forecast to reach 3.6% of GDP in 2019, official target is 2.9%
BIS’s Borio calls on economists to take money more seriously
Money is too often explored in isolation, or ignored completely, the BIS economist says
Blanchard calls for rethink on costs of debt
Fiscal cost of public debt may be zero, macroeconomist argues, but that does not make debt costless
India vulnerable to oil shocks – RBI research
Study weighs effects of oil shocks on current account, inflation and government finances
Euro area wage growth appears sustainable – ECB bulletin
ECB wage analysis shows increases are no longer being driven primarily by ‘wage drift’
EME banks have ‘substantially’ increased global footprint – BIS research
Study finds emerging market banks have taken a greater role as their home economies have grown
Lower oil prices and stronger lira send Turkey and Argentina diverging
In 2019, analysts expect inflation to drop sharply in Argentina and to bounce back in Turkey
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
Atlanta Fed launches new rental market data tool
The affordability tracker sheds a new light on how many households in the region are struggling to find affordable housing
Can central bank revamp help Tunisia remain a ‘public good’?
Central Bank of Tunisia moves to modernise, but faces tough times ahead