Macroeconomics
Researcher models business cycle using ‘animal spirits’
San Francisco Fed paper incorporates ‘equity sentiment shock’ into model
Labour reallocation explains productivity puzzle – BoE paper
Methodological innovation helps solve data-quality issues, author says
Forecasting yield curve inversion is hard – Cleveland Fed research
Inversions may be a “harbinger of recession” but seeing them coming is difficult, says economist
NY Fed paper: ‘replacement hiring’ affects productivity wage gap
Replacement hiring can explain much of the gap between wages and productivity, authors say
Money matters for macro fluctuations – Fed paper
Working paper says previous research by Schularick and Taylor may have been flawed
Leading governors analyse evolving inflation-employment relationship
Powell, Draghi, Lowe and Kuroda assess causes keeping wage growth low across the world
Woodford shows finite horizons matter when modelling
Removing rational expectations can change key economic results, says Michael Woodford
Andy Haldane rethinks traditional growth narrative
New research implies growth did not “flatline” before the industrial revolution
Brainard says yield curve inversion may not presage recession
Flatter yield curve “may temper somewhat” fears of a coming recession, says governor
Housing inequality creates credit inequality – NY Fed’s Hirtle
Older people with less need of credit have seen the value of their collateral rise more
RBA paper finds elusive interest rate-investment link
Authors present empirical evidence for inverse relationship between rates and investment
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Swedish paper examines effects of business cycles on employment
Volatile business cycles cut the number of new jobs and employment, Riksbank paper says; analysis uses labour market search model to track effects
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
Real rates likely to move back up – BIS paper
Use of “shadow rate” allows authors to account for the effective lower bound
US labour participation rate down more than OECD average – Dallas Fed
Higher incarceration rates and worse social services may partly explain trend
Israel’s Flug calls for higher-quality labour market
Bank of Israel governor says country is close to full employment but must do more to improve labour market conditions
BIS economists find frictions in banks’ dollar funding
Authors investigate wide divergence in the business models of European and Japanese banks
Stock imbalances can stabilise or destabilise – BIS paper
Asymmetry implies burden of adjustment tends to fall on deficit countries
RBI paper finds complexity in exchange rate pass-through
Authors argue the standard view of exchange rates having a “linear and symmetric” impact on prices is flawed
BoE not to blame for gold standard-era crises in US – paper
Bank of England’s rate decisions between 1884 and 1913 were not responsible for “causing or aggravating” crises in the US, author finds
Intellectual property investment fuelling growth in Australia – Lowe
RBA governor says lack of growth in “tangible assets” is turning investment towards the information technology market
Yield curve inversion still tends to signal trouble ahead – Fed economists
The term spread has a “strikingly accurate record” for forecasting recessions, and this time looks to be no different, say researchers