Growth
ECB policy paper says unconventional policy worked
Paper says QE purchases explain “lion’s share” of changes to eurozone yield curves
Inequality can worsen recessions – BIS paper
But authors say there is little evidence that income inequality affects consumption in normal times
A return of the inflation monster?
There are fears that a shift in intellectual approach towards running economies ‘hot’ could herald a return of the money-eating inflation era
The future of forward guidance
BNP Paribas Asset Management explores the current landscape around forward guidance, focusing on how central banks’ methods of communication are likely to evolve in the future. By Richard Barwell
Don’t dismiss inflation risks but don’t overreact, say central bankers
Sbordone, Smets and Vlieghe weigh up challenges for central banks in the “return towards normal”
The new era of money supply and its impact on policy
The empirical relationship between money and inflation has changed, writes Manmohan Singh, with Apoorv Bhargava and Peter Stella. To understand current policy challenges, we must first understand money creation
Book notes: The handbook of China’s financial system, edited by Marlene Amstad, Sun Guofeng and Xiong Wei
An important, comprehensive and informed overview of the current state of the Chinese financial system
UK regulators launch plan for less liquid fund structure
Aim is to allow productive investment for the long term while curbing vulnerabilities
BoE forecasts 7.25% UK growth in 2021
Bailey warns downside risks to the outlook remain
BoJ forecasts weaker inflation but stronger growth
Inflation still negative in Japan but likely to inch above zero this year, forecasts suggest
Sarb projects ‘sharp but incomplete initial recovery’
South African inflation forecast to rise on higher electricity and water prices
Book notes: Central banks as fiscal players, by Willem Buiter
Buiter puts a real economic problem into a convincing theoretical frame, and translates it into applicable policy advice
Rising rates could endanger emerging market recovery, IMF warns
“Divergent recovery” likely to create financial stability challenges, report says
MAS contributes reserves to IMF pandemic funds
Singapore to provide $20.6 million to IMF initiatives for low-income countries hit by Covid-19
Newspaper text can improve growth forecasts – DNB research
Sentiment index can cut errors in short-term forecasts, study finds
BoE’s Tenreyro highlights divergence in UK and US policies
US focused on protecting incomes, while UK protected jobs, MPC member notes
Barkin concerned over pandemic ‘scarring’
Richmond Fed chief says disruptions imperil access to jobs and economic growth
ECB weekly asset purchases raised to €21.1 billion
On March 11, central bank promised to conduct purchases “at a significantly higher pace”
China appoints two new PBoC policy members
PBoC gets two new monetary policy members as IMF warns of rising stability risks
BoE holds interest rates as MPC members differ over risks
MPC points to signs of stronger recovery but also uncertainties around household spending
Fed keeps policy rate steady
Jerome Powell says FOMC will hold policy until it sees “actual progress, not forecast progress”
Lifetime achievement: Charles Goodhart
The LSE and BoE veteran economist has his own ‘law’, and played a key role in the establishment of monetary policy in the UK, Hong Kong’s peg and the ‘New Zealand model’, which influenced a generation of central bankers
Governor of the year: Alejandro Díaz de León
Díaz de León has upheld the authority, integrity and independence of the Bank of Mexico against significant external and internal pressures
Yield curve control not ECB’s ‘easiest way forward’ – Centeno
ECB board member Fabio Panetta calls for decisive action to reduce higher bond yields