Research
Tighter US capital ratios eased inequality – Bundesbank paper
Richer households’ incomes fell while Fed’s easing cushioned effects on middle and low earners
BoE paper studies CoCo effects in ‘one-shot game’
Game theoretic approach suggests CoCos cut risk-taking in certain circumstances
Riksbank’s negative rates successfully passed through to economy – research
Findings contrast with recent work by Larry Summers and co-authors
Paper proposes ‘re-engineering’ US statistics
System for compiling statistics is dated and overly complex, authors say
Crypto assets hobbled by proof of work, finds BIS economist
Raphael Auer says bitcoin payments could take “nearly a year” to become truly final
Innovation prompts firms to hold more cash – IMF paper
Firms must hold enough liquidity to insure against risky research and development
Establishing the Fed worsened the Great Depression – St Louis Fed paper
Setting up lender of last resort reduced banks’ incentive to manage risk, paper argues
Fall in technology use helped slow Canadian productivity, BoC paper finds
But slowdown in labour productivity began eight years before fall in technology use – researchers
Summers and co-authors find negative rates can be contractionary
Policy rate cuts below zero can lead to higher lending rates by commercial banks, authors find
Growth keeping global debt-to-GDP just below all-time high – IIF
Latest monitoring report puts debt at three times global GDP, with some countries especially vulnerable
Low US unemployment unlikely to foster sudden wage growth – research
Fed projections see unemployment rate falling to 3.5% by the end of 2019
Adoption of a privately-issued digital currency can reduce social welfare, researchers find
Optimal policy can be achieved through central bank digital currency, authors say
US equity prices affect consumer and business confidence, researcher finds
Results highlight risks to macroeconomy of recent equity slump
EU labour mobility is cyclical stabiliser – paper
Common market allows migration from countries with high unemployment to markets looking for workers
Employers alter skill demands in line with unemployment, researchers find
Requirements for a bachelor’s degree increased during higher unemployment, authors find
Spending behaviour in unemployment does not fit with rational models – paper
Behavioural models of “present-biased or myopic” choices fit better with the data, authors say
India vulnerable to oil shocks – RBI research
Study weighs effects of oil shocks on current account, inflation and government finances
US interbank market may not recover from QE – Fed paper
Authors warn shrinking the Fed balance sheet might not be enough to revive the market
Conventional models beat machine learning in predicting crises, paper finds
Bundesbank paper contrasts performance of logit approach to machine learning
Lower interest rates make risky investments more likely – BoE paper
Gains from gambling increase when rates are low, researcher argues
Price shocks worse with poorly anchored inflation expectations – IMF paper
Inflation rises less and falls quicker after shocks when expectations are well anchored, study finds
Low rates can encourage risk-taking – BoE paper
Author models the risk-taking channel of monetary policy alongside a “bankruptcy channel”
Diverging regulatory policies could spell trouble for banks, report says
Deloitte says there are obvious signs of regulatory divergence as regulators and supervise focus on national policies
‘Key currencies’ affect patterns of global imbalances – BIS paper
Authors say it is important to think about a “dollar zone” not just the dollar