Research
China’s rebalancing on hold as growth falters – IMF paper
Rebalancing is expected to continue in 2019, but income inequality and leverage could prove an issue
Monetary easing can harm growth in some open economies, IMF researchers suggest
Leverage constraints reduce domestic credit in monetary easing cycle, authors say
Immigrants smooth eurozone labour market shocks – Bank of Italy paper
Non-EU immigrants have higher mobility than Europeans moving between countries – researchers
BoE paper proposes fix for flawed rate expectation estimates
Model augmented with overnight indexed swap rates performs better, author says
Unconventional policy may reduce bank resilience, BIS paper finds
QE had different effects on “core” and “periphery” eurozone countries, researchers say
NY Fed economist explores election night volatility
Treasuries suffered dramatic moves as Donald Trump was elected in 2016
Fiscal deficits caused persistent pressure for Mexican inflation, paper finds
Central bank independence stabilised inflation, researchers find
BoE paper proposes nowcast method for GDP revisions
Dynamic factor model reveals information on how early estimates may be revised, authors say
US forward guidance had limited effectiveness, Fed paper finds
Households and firms took until 2012 to seriously consider new regime, researchers say
US policy has greater impact on non-US leverage than domestic policy, paper finds
The phenomenon is complex for policy-makers, authors say
US policy tightening heightens chance of crisis for close partners, paper finds
Countries should diversify their global trade exposure, Federal Reserve economists say
BoE paper highlights flaws in bank modelling
Many models still treat banks as “warehouses”, authors say, with important modelling implications
Eurozone wage rigidity largely persisted in great recession – Finnish paper
Frequency of wage changes fell in recession in many countries, researchers find
Bruno and Shin investigate EM firms’ dollar vulnerabilities
BIS paper highlights negative effects of US dollar strength on emerging market firms, as figures show dollar borrowing is still on the rise
ECB paper presents new sovereign stress model
New method builds on earlier CISS model to measure systemic stress in eurozone
Dallas Fed paper analyses monetary policy rules
Results are in “stark contrast” to previous research, authors say
Unconventional policy is best response to financial shocks – ECB paper
Non-standard measures shield borrowers from unwarranted lending rate rises, researchers say
US regulatory sanctions lead to banks cutting credit costs – Finnish paper
Sanctioned banks cut loan costs by 22bp on average, researchers find
Fed’s QE programme changed US corporate financing – BdF paper
Conventional monetary policy and QE have very different transmission mechanisms – researchers
Debt poses a threat to African monetary policy – BIS paper
Central bankers could use their influence to encourage government prudence, authors say
Macro-prudential forex rules may shift vulnerability – BoE paper
Study of forex rules finds they may succeed in their primary goal, but shift risks elsewhere
Lower bound not a big constraint for the Fed – paper
Risks of Fed being constrained in the future are “greatly overstated”, author says
BIS paper finds trade-off in forward guidance
Forward guidance may deter economic growth, authors say
‘Amazon effects’ impact pricing across economy – paper
Alberto Cavallo says online competition has changed pricing dynamics on- and offline