Research
Terms of trade shocks not symmetric – BoE paper
Developing countries particularly vulnerable to export shocks, study finds
Paper presents forecasting method for bank losses
Bank of Finland paper attempts to forecast both “expected” and “unexpected” banking losses
Firms and households form inflation expectations very differently – paper
Confidence in economy has strongly divergent effects, Central Bank of Ireland research finds
BdF paper looks at fiscal responses to liquidity traps
Infrastructure spending is more robust to model specification changes than sales tax- paper
Macro-prudential policies cut liquidity trap risk – ECB paper
Fall in systematic risk boosts natural interest rate and reduces intensity of liquidity traps, paper finds
Furlough schemes may conceal slack in EU labour market – ECB research
The longer the pandemic continues, the more job reallocation will be needed, authors say
Tourism acts as Covid-19 amplifier in the eurozone
Shock is increasing fragmentation risks in the region due to its uneven effect across countries
BIS paper explores impact of demographics on house prices
Study focuses on Korea’s “exceptionally rapid” demographic change
Paper tracks changing rhetoric of Bank of Italy governors
Governors have changed the focus of their concluding remarks over time, as well as the length of their speeches
NBER paper seeks lessons for home working in Industrial Revolution
Move to remote working could be undermined by organisational problems, authors warn
Covid-19 likely harms productivity – BoE paper
Private sector could lose 5% of its productivity in Q4 this year, authors estimate
Paper lays groundwork for Canadian ‘Hank’ model
Author estimates “earnings process” as step towards heterogeneous agent modelling
Loans to SMEs should have lower capital requirements – BdF paper
More SME lending boosts banks’ portfolio diversity and decreases systemic risk exposure, paper finds
CBDC could give consumers power over their data – paper
Mere existence of CBDC could discipline data-hungry payments firms, authors say
Bank of Spain paper applies text mining to climate disclosures
Some climate disclosures found only in remuneration or Pillar 3 reports, researchers say
Bank of Spain paper looks at loan origination times
Loan origination data provides important insights into banking stability, researchers argue
BIS paper explores reasons for large gold reserves
Researcher says large holdings can be justified, but only for some purposes
ECB paper looks at cross-border macro-prudential effects
Imposing capital buffers cuts risk-taking and lending by foreign subsidiaries, researchers find
Green firms see equities rise as climate concerns grow – NBB paper
Researchers track relationship between media coverage and large firms’ equity values
Stablecoins could allow for ‘embedded supervision’ – BIS paper
But authors say CBDCs may be a more effective means of achieving the same goal
Excess liquidity can weaken policy transmission – BoE paper
“Novel dataset” sheds light on possible unintended consequences of crisis-fighting measures
NBG paper develops early warning system for external risks
Georgia’s current account deficit and dollarisation create vulnerabilities, authors say
Eurozone’s ageing is lowering interest rates – BoI paper
Natural real interest rate is likely to reach its lowest point around 2030, researcher finds
Bank of Italy paper looks at flatter Phillips curve
Weaker collective bargaining has played key role in flattening relationship, researchers say