Research
LTV ratios need reform, ECB paper argues
Macro-prudential tools must now apply to real estate funds financed by non-bank loans – researcher
Bundesbank paper examines stress-test models
Authors present a method to investigate how well stress tests predict bank failures
New York Fed paper examines MBS price dislocations in March
Flight to safety and dealer balance sheet constraints widened cash-forward basis, researchers find
Improvements in US consumer expectations halt in July
Households more pessimistic as Covid-19 continues to spread, New York Fed survey reveals
BoE paper outlines ‘capital flows-at-risk’ framework
Methodology allows researchers to explore full distribution of “push” and “pull” effects on capital flows
Fed paper: market power can cause inequality and instability
Market power can explain a lot of recent undesirable “secular trends”, authors say; redistribution could have macro-prudential benefits
Emerging markets face L-shaped recession – paper
Researcher works back from growth forecasts to see how Covid shocks might play out
US unemployment falls to 10.2%
Miscalculation errors continue to understate headline figures, Peterson Institute research finds
Emerging markets face ‘uphill battle’ against pandemic – IMF staff
EME countries face limited fiscal space and possible solvency crisis, warn researchers
Fed paper looks at effects of negative rates on banks
Banks with large holdings of liquid assets could be hurt by negative rates, researcher says
IMF supports Riksbank’s criticism of proposed central bank law
Swedish lawmakers propose separating monetary and financial stability measures
IMF economists call for action on global imbalances
“Excessive” imbalances exist in 40% of cases, though they have narrowed slightly
BIS’s Restoy: Covid-19 blurs lines between policy instruments
Prudential policies have taken on an explicit economic stabilisation role for the first time, official says
Flight to safety was not enough to fund credit line draws – Fed research
Many banks had to turn to non-deposit forms of borrowing, researchers find
Share buybacks limits monetary policy- BdF paper
Use of low-cost debt for buy-backs cuts spending on employment and capital good- researchers
Okun’s law can help predict GDP revisions – SF Fed paper
Revisions to GDP estimates during recovery from pandemic could significantly affect policy
Dutch cash payments fall sharply, DNB says
Cash payments were 30% of transactions in early 2020 but fell to 13% in April, study finds
Kansas Fed paper looks at conditional forward guidance
Date-based forward guidance would be effective without yield curve control, research says
Fed’s forward guidance has significant bond yield impact – DNB paper
Researchers say data indicates that Fed managed to preserve monetary policy credibility
Female workers badly hit by pandemic job losses – IMF economist
Lower-paid workers hit hardest both by 2008 recession and slump caused by pandemic
Structural changes may increase dollar funding strains – IMF paper
Some emerging markets still face “significant funding pressure”, researchers find
Covid-19 hampering high-tech development in Israel – BoI research
Pandemic exposes risk of overreliance on international financing in a key economic sector
Dealer capacity tightened significantly in March – Fed research
US primary dealers’ capacity to absorb Treasuries fell by 17% in March, economist finds
BIS paper studies early form of macro-pru policy
Dutch controls on credit from 1960s to 1990s helped promote stability, authors find