Research
BoE paper offers solution to ‘paradox of flexibility’
Using shadow rate can avoid anomalous results at zero lower bound, authors say
Weak banks could reverse effects of policy rate cuts – ECB paper
Countercyclical buffers play crucial role in preventing “reversal interest rate” events, researchers find
BIS paper pins down causal impact of capital flows
Study based on confidential BIS data finds capital controls can help prevent overheating
Central banks face fintech ‘balancing act’ in Latin America – BIS paper
Region needs right institutional framework to benefit from rapid rise of fintech, authors say
BIS paper warns economies may stagnate after Covid-19
Author models the structural changes brought about by the coronavirus pandemic
ECB paper looks at interest rate-growth differential
Several factors are likely to push differential up for some eurozone countries, say researchers
Disintermediation caused by CBDC can be prevented – research
Central banks can use lender of last resort power and decrease CBDC remuneration
Dollar funding drives global house price movements – BIS paper
Non-US banks often depend heavily on dollar funding to issue mortgages, authors show
Fed paper presents model of Covid-19 trade-offs
Data-driven model implies lockdown can work if a vaccine can be developed quickly enough
Paper offers method for evaluating machine learning models
Bank of Spain paper looks at cost and benefits of ML models for predicting credit defaults
Bundesbank paper looks at consequences of weak supervision
Supervisors seen as less likely to intervene give banks incentive to stay undercapitalised - researchers
DNB paper looks at eurozone’s interest rates
Paper looks at effects of ECB monetary policy shocks on bank equity prices from 1999 to 2020
Bank of Italy paper compares US recession-forecasting methods
Measure of uncertainty out-performs even yield curve in short term, researchers say
ECB paper presents new measure of underlying inflation
“PCCI” measure does not exclude HICP items and gives timely notice of turning points, authors say
ECB paper looks at eurozone money markets
Policy-makers must ensure smooth functioning of secured money markets, researchers say
Fed’s Covid-19 response drove euro’s appreciation – ECB paper
Effects of QE on exchange rates are comparable to conventional monetary policies, researchers find
Transparency on financial stability not always optimal – Fed paper
Author finds upside to opacity, but says central banks may face time inconsistency problem
Token-based CBDC poses security risks – BoC paper
Bank of Canada has said token-based approach is its preferred method, but authors warn of risks
Information drives transatlantic policy spillovers – ECB paper
Tighter ECB policy often causes financial easing in US due to “information effect”, researcher argues
Bankruptcies could trigger ‘protracted’ unemployment – BIS research
Reallocating resources quickly will help reduce the pain of adjustment, economists say
Central bank refinancing greatly lowers banking risk – ECB paper
Paper uses data on post-crisis eurozone to calculate effects of refinancing rate on risks facing banks
Reforms cut risk-taking by G-Sibs – ECB paper
Researchers say reforms may have at least partly resolved “too big to fail” problem for largest banks
Carbon tax could help monetary policy – ECB paper
But tax will only improve welfare if alternatives to carbon-based power are available, say researchers
Austrian paper estimates effects of European helicopter money
Researchers use data on likely consumption of windfall income from survey of 17 European countries