Research
BoE study suggests policy can affect inflation expectations
However, many households still have theoretically “wrong” idea about effects of tightening
Trade wars could cost world $6.5tn by 2030 – Swift study
Fragmented financial landscape “benefits no one”, report shows
Fed’s anecdotal survey correlates with economic data – research
Study says Beige Book’s “soft” data is “actually quite firm”
Central banks must be responsive to commodity price swings – BIS
Risk of transitioning to “high-inflation regime” may require more active policy, bulletin says
Bigger cities do not mean much greater growth – study
Benefits of agglomeration are “surprisingly little”, NBER paper argues
Higher tariffs would hurt US allies as well as its foes – research
However, research says country would be largely shielded from impact of geopolitical fragmentation
Confidence in stability matters for financial inclusion – IMF paper
Study of central Asia finds good governance increases effectiveness of many policies
Refinancing at higher rates might not cut consumption – BoE paper
Homeowners’ ability to modify loan terms could weaken monetary policy transmission, study finds
Distributions allow better state-level forecasts – RBI paper
Authors find new method incorporating inflation and expectations can cut forecast errors
Unfunded fiscal spending leads to lower real rates – research
Deglobalisation could limit ability of monetary policy to control inflation, says author
Forbearance does not always lead to ‘zombification’ – BoE paper
Well-designed policies can support firms through temporary periods of stress, researchers find
Central banks need to foster trust – ECB report
Instilling public confidence helps in achieving policy objectives and maintaining independence
Fintechs’ share in Dutch NBFI lending doubled in two years – DNB study
However, €2.3 billion dispersed by firms still represents only 0.7% of all loans
Central banks ‘too slow’ on wholesale CBDCs, industry says
Report emphasises need for greater public-private collaboration and unified definition
Demographics could trigger closures of US universities – study
Research by Philly Fed says fewer young people are enrolling, which is adding to financial pressures
IMF team builds new multi-country semi-structural model
G3MOD designed for frequent analysis by central banks of trade and financial links
‘Inflation disagreement’ weakens US monetary policy – Fed study
Households’ inflation expectations differ from central bankers’, thus adding to post-Covid momentum
Tax avoiders less likely to channel funds through Netherlands – DNB
Annual flow of money to tax havens fell by 75% in just five years, central bank says
Generative AI can decipher FOMC minute topics – Fed research
Authors say technology could enhance public’s understanding of central banking
Stiglitz offers alternatives to standard theories of economic fluctuations
Nobel prize winner argues that endogenously driven variations are key to understanding economies
Phillips curve is convex in short term – NBER paper
Data on US and UK shows firms respond more to positive than negative demand shocks
US inflation expectations tick up across all time horizons
NY Fed survey finds more respondents expect prices to rise over one- three- and five-year timeframes
Italian lenders do not under-report default risks – central bank
Commercial lenders’ internal rating-based systems “less conservative” than central bank’s
Fed’s latest Beige Book reports modest growth across US
Boston was only branch to report decreased activity since October