Research
Jordan revamps forecast model with richer interactions
Jam2.0 adds a fiscal block and captures more complexities of central bank policy
Policy rate is Fed’s most powerful monetary tool, says paper
Researcher tests impact of changes in short-term rate, forward guidance and asset purchases
BoE study recommends ‘simple and flexible’ CBDC infrastructure
Central bank needs to be wary of firms wielding too much market power, author says
US inflation hurting poorer citizens – St Louis Fed research
Nearly 90% of low-income households report significant stress from inflation
BIS paper highlights costs and benefits of crypto regulation
Decision to regulate needs to be backed by data and clear frameworks, authors say
US wage expectations rising, says NY Fed labour market survey
Both lowest acceptable transitionary wage and expected salary hit series highs
Digitalisation has complex impact on monetary policy – BoC paper
New technologies could affect policy transmission, communication and data tools
UK debt risks likely to stay below historical peaks – BoE analysis
But firms are increasingly vulnerable to rising interest rates, economists find
Study estimates scale of ‘demographic drag’
Loss of economic growth from population ageing could be significant, authors warn
Economic impact of CBDC likely ‘negligible’ – Colombian paper
Economists at Central Bank of Colombia consider design choices and how they may affect the economy
Europe unlikely to see major gas shortage this winter – research
Risks remain if alternative sources of natural gas falter, says Fed economist
Canadian CBDC would not improve inclusion, paper says
Bank of Canada research finds most citizens already have access to e-payments options
BoE paper analyses banks’ forecasting accuracy
Banks with better governance, including more senior women, make better predictions, authors find
High-frequency traders impose costs on others – BIS paper
Study of dark pools finds HFTs almost never provide liquidity, while raising the cost for all
Shelter inflation set to fall significantly – SF Fed research
“Conservative” model predicts shelter inflation will be 0% in the US by summer 2024
Hedge funds may reduce liquidity in volatile periods – BoC research
By transacting abnormally in times of market stress, hedge funds can reduce liquidity
BIS paper’s guide to monitoring ‘highly leveraged’ non-banks
Using new data sources can help to shed light on an opaque sector, authors say
Inequality rising in the US – Minneapolis Fed report
“Government intervention largely eliminates the cyclicality in inequality at the bottom,” research says
AI can forecast inflation more accurately than professionals – St Louis Fed
Large language models may be powerful tools but have some drawbacks, researchers say
US credit application rejections increase sharply
Automobile loan rejections hit highest level since NY Fed began measuring in 2013
‘Supercore inflation’ is a key indicator, Fed paper argues
Non-housing core service prices behaved very differently in 2019 and 2021, researchers say
ECB paper analyses carbon pricing schemes
Rising compliance costs can push firms away from green innovation, paper finds
Forward guidance loses power when rates rise, RBI research finds
Tool is useful at lower bound but is much less effective during normal conditions, paper argues
ECB paper models ‘state-dependent’ impact of capital ratios
Model simulates ratio changes’ effects on credit supply in different macro-financial conditions