Research
San Francisco Fed paper details declining immigration into US
Statistics show decline after White House’s June proclamation barring entry across southern border
As a population ages, impact of deflation worsens – BoJ study
Research says falling prices inflict greatest harm on young people
Rate hikes affect manufacturing economies more – Fed study
Authors find similar effects across eurozone and in US at county level
Decentralised crypto exchanges dominated by big players – paper
Research argues that simply removing intermediaries is not enough to democratise finance
US consumers are increasingly denied credit – NY Fed survey
Rejections for auto loans and remortgages have reached record levels
Media narratives drive capital flows into China – NBER paper
Sentiment in news articles impacts investment decisions, regardless of country’s economic fundamentals
US consumers predict growing pressure from inflation and debt
More respondents to NY Fed survey expect to miss payments and to face steeper price rises
Doing nothing is ‘least costly’ response to US tariffs – BoF blog
Costs will be borne by American firms and households, Bank of Finland analysis shows
Covid stimulus did not trigger US inflation surge – NBER study
Working paper says QE and fiscal stimulus had minimal impact on price rises
Paper offers solution to EME monetary transmission puzzles
Price and exchange rate conundrums are interconnected, authors find
Banxico working paper tackles ‘loan puzzle’
Study finds that banks increase credit to low-delinquency sectors following policy tightening
IMF paper tracks banks that are ‘keeping coal alive’
Pull-back of many lenders is leaving concentrated exposures and roll-over risk
Rate uncertainty means firms hire and invest less – BdF study
European companies hoard cash and reduce dividend payments when monetary stance is unclear
Bofit study projects continued slowdown in China
Group’s latest forecast says economy needs to be rebalanced in favour of consumption
BIS paper explores how AI can predict asset demand
Better data availability and modelling techniques help central banks evaluate market reaction to QE
No systemic link between dollar and oil price yet – ECB paper
Increasing value of crude no longer weakens greenback, but does not “significantly” lift currency
Vix spike in August not driven by actual volatility – BIS
Latest bulletin explains how widening bid-ask spreads drove up the index
Savings dampen monetary policy effectiveness – Fed paper
Central banks should track excess saving at a high frequency, authors recommend
Policy tightening reduces labour productivity and presence – paper
Lower participation and labour supply have inflationary effects, Bank of Canada authors find
SNB researchers develop ‘more precise’ LLM-based risk predictor
New model allows for “more nuanced understanding” of types of uncertainty, researchers say
Global component of inflation surged in pandemic – research
Dallas Fed authors say international factors exert greater influence than they did pre-Covid
FSB warns of liquidity and maturity risks in tokenised assets
Report highlights financial stability implications if tokenised assets are widely adopted
Central banks must navigate impact of tokenisation – BIS
Paper weighs in on how policy-makers should react to innovations in financial market infrastructure
Colombian policy reforms boosted transparency, paper finds
Economists say central bank’s 2018-19 overhaul increased transparency based on two indexes