Research
No significant risk of US recession – St Louis Fed research
Sahm Rule and leading economic data indicate low – but not zero – recession risk
NBER paper estimates demand for bank reserves in US
Fed needs global estimates of demand curve slope to maintain interest rate control, authors say
US housing inflation will slow in early 2024, Dallas Fed paper says
Researcher uses vector error correction model to estimate housing market pressures
Liquidity buffers had mixed impact during Covid-19, ECB paper finds
Higher buffers for funds slowed initial fire sales but had less impact during “peak phase”
Chile’s cash use has rebounded since pandemic, survey finds
Cash remains the primary payment method for small purchases, though card use has risen
More central clearing could have eased Covid shock – BoE paper
Efficiencies for dealer balance sheets could allow banks to play greater stabilising role, authors say
Eurozone carbon tax hike would cause small GDP fall, paper finds
Raising tax to rate consistent with net zero would create only transient inflation, researchers say
ECB paper examines green regulation’s productivity impact
Tougher rules seem to hurt productivity, but might raise it over longer horizons, researchers say
Data privacy laws can boost fintech lending – BIS paper
Study finds Californian law led to more data being shared with fintech firms
Boston Fed paper looks at wider impact of banking stress
High levels of leverage magnify impact of bank crises on output and employment
Hank model reveals monetary non-neutrality
Inequality and zero lower bound suggest monetary policy can impact long-term real rates
Carbon pricing would have ‘limited impact’ on eurozone inflation, says paper
Inflation would rise less than 0.2% per year until 2025 and then decline, researchers say
Subsidies could cut net zero transition costs, BdF paper finds
Using carbon tax revenues to fund new technologies would almost halve GDP loss, researchers say
ECB paper estimates inflationary effects of climate change
Rising temperatures are having persistent effects on prices, especially for food
‘Robust’ wage growth consistent with disinflation – BIS paper
But firms need to avoid increasing their profit margins, authors find
Nigeria CBDC uptake ‘disappointingly low’ – paper
The e-naira is technically sound, but actual use is negligible, says IMF study
ECB policy leaks have ‘sizeable impact’
Leaks tend to reflect minority views and reverse trends in short-term rates
Spillovers more widespread than previously thought – Boston Fed
Many central banks cause spillovers besides the Federal Reserve, researcher says
Fed communication drives house price expectations – NBER paper
Researchers find people’s expectations vary widely and depend on clear explanations
Steeper Phillips curve cannot fully explain inflation surge – IMF paper
Structural factors have led to some steepening but it is not the full story, authors say
ECB paper suggests faster methods for estimating eurozone employment
Nowcasting tools outperform models currently used by ECB, researchers say
Supervisors should take action on interest rate risk – BIS paper
Core regulation alone will not neutralise all current risks, Financial Stability Institute says
Central banks have ‘long way to go’ on gender equality – IMF paper
“Multidimensional survey” finds eight major central banks are unequal on many metrics
Non-banks key to ‘absorbing’ sovereign debt – BIS paper
New database of key players in sovereign debt markets reveals EME reliance on non-banks