Research
Pandemic fiscal support had rapid inflationary impact – NBER paper
Inflationary impact of support to consumers was “quick to ensue, but moderate”, authors find
Text analysis of news spots Chinese financial risk, says paper
Researchers’ model uses machine learning to assess thousands of newspaper articles
Credit constraints have small impact on housing market – paper
RBA economist revisits the effects of down payments on housing prices
‘Neglect’ of money growth may have harmed forecasts – paper
Study finds forecasters make larger errors when money growth is highest
Expected loss model can cut capital procyclicality – BoE paper
New approach to loan loss provisioning can improve stability of capital and leverage ratios
BIS paper proposes new capital flow management tool
Offsetting capital flows rather than blocking them could be the optimal choice, authors say
BoE says rush to sell could undermine insurance stability
Supervisor questions whether some firms’ stress-test assumptions are “realistic”
‘Funding for lending’ may suffer side effects – BIS committee
Survey finds lending schemes tend to be effective, but firms may become dependent
Capital buffers not all working as intended – BoE paper
Some banks raised rates and contracted credit supply during the Covid-19 crisis
“Make-up” strategies may boost monetary policy, says paper
Price-level and average inflation targeting regimes stabilise import-related inflation, researchers find
Monetary tightening has ‘rapid’ effect on spending – BIS paper
Study finds conventional policy tools have bigger impact on consumption than unconventional ones
Mark-ups made up more than 50% of US inflation – Kansas City Fed
Rise in mark-ups may point to opportunistic pricing by firms
BoE paper finds non-banks act as global stabilisers
Non-bank firms help dampen the impact of US monetary policy spillovers, authors find
Missed inflation target has ‘sizeable’ fiscal impact – paper
Persistent undershooting by ECB caused problems for countries with long-duration debt, authors say
Paper explores development and monetary policy transmission
Financial development only improves transmission to some rates, Colombian researchers find
BIS finds Brexit dented London’s financial ‘pre-eminence’
London remains a leader in banking and derivatives, but has lost some market share
ECB paper examines effects of real rates on banks’ fragility
Level of real interest rates determines whether price or scale effects predominates, researchers find
BIS bulletin weighs pros and cons of ‘front-loaded’ tightening
Recent rate increases are highly synchronised and twice as fast as previous cycles, authors say
BIS paper finds ‘mixed’ evidence of non-banks triggering spillovers
“Extreme” capital flows have not worsened, but central banks are also more active, authors note
Dollarisation did not prevent monetary financing, paper finds
IMF researchers show how Ecuador created central bank money without its own currency
Housing plays growing role in transmitting ECB policy, paper finds
Labour earnings still most important means of transmission, researchers say
ECB paper presents new corporate default prediction method
Authors say their “distance to insolvency” measure outperforms other forecasting methods
BIS paper finds reserves scarcity even during QE era
Banks still relied heavily on incoming payments to replenish funds, researchers find
Climate change may have serious effects on natural rate – ECB paper
Monetary policy may need more flexibility to deal with climate and green transition, researchers say