ECB paper compares ability of indicators to predict bond risk premia
Financial indicators less successful at predicting bond market outcomes, researchers say
Macroeconomic factors perform better than financial market indicators in predicting the risk premia for eurozone bonds, a working paper published by the European Central Bank argues.
In Bond risk premia, macroeconomic factors and financial crisis in the euro area, Juan Angel Garcia and Sebastian EV Werner assemble "132 monthly macroeconomic indicators, including both euro area-wide and country-specific information".
The authors compare these against an array of financial indicators, such as
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