Economics
Cross-border credit slips back into contraction
Latest BIS statistics show rebound of cross-border claims was temporary; China bucks trend with rapid growth of inward credit
Low-paid jobs may explain flat Phillips curve – research
As recovery continues, this phenomenon should dissipate, authors say
Firms with greater liquidity needs benefit more from higher public debt – research
The positive effect of government debt on industry stems from domestic debt, not external debt, author finds
IMF: global recovery is broad but incomplete
Fund ups its growth forecasts but says many are missing out; Maurice Obstfeld urges policymakers to take action while “times are good”
Markets upbeat on strengthening US wage growth figures
Non-farm payrolls drop slightly but wages appear to be gathering pace; figures impacted by hurricanes Irma and Harvey
Theory of inflation dynamics is not good enough, warns Tarullo
Former Fed governor says economists have “almost paradoxical” mix of scepticism towards and reliance on shaky concepts
Neural network can beat conventional forecasts – Kansas City Fed research
Deep learning model outperforms Survey of Professional Forecasters at all horizons
BIS report sheds light on innovative big data use
Central banks across the globe are turning to big data to solve statistical issues, improve banking supervision, and analyse communications
Fed paper calls for rethink of conditions for setting capital controls
Policymakers should also consider how external shocks affect the borrowing capacity of the country, researchers say
Good data management key to extracting value from big data – panellists
Big data proves most useful when backed by a well-designed production chain – but it comes at a cost, central bank data experts say
Central banks may be thinking wrongly about inflation – Borio
BIS economist says inflation may not always and everywhere be a monetary phenomenon, which could help explain why the natural rate is so low
Bank of Canada deputy warns about negative effects of protectionism
Timothy Lane says populism may lead to less trade and lower standards of living
IMF paper calls for global co-operation on big data
Discussion note urges statistical authorities to “step up” their involvement in big data projects and develop frameworks for knowledge sharing
Savings and good governance are best policy against natural disasters – IADB
Chile was able to overcome a major earthquake in 2010 without resorting to international funding
Philadelphia Fed launches new research institute
Research body is tasked with better understanding consumer behaviour, particularly in relation to financial markets
Racial wage gaps in US caused by ‘harder-to-measure’ factors
Lack of opportunity plays bigger role than education and profession in racial inequality, paper finds
BoE paper adds time-varying parameters to DSGE model
Method allows parameters to shift over time as the structure of the economy changes, yielding improvements to forecasting
BoE authors outline machine learning framework
Paper offers guide to machine learning in central bank analysis, and sets out a few examples relevant to policy
Paper challenges Rey’s ideas on global financial cycle
Cerutti, Claessens and Rose contest idea that capital flows are mainly the result of common shocks or developments in the US
IMF paper explores relation between greenhouse gas emissions and GDP growth
Research studies how advanced economies are transitioning to low-emissions economic models
Latin America lags in use of robotics, but faces same threats
Robots threaten over 50% of jobs across the region, report warns, though they offer an opportunity to boost productivity
San Francisco Fed research explores evolution of job-matching efficiency
As people out of the labour force are included, the volatility of the job-to-job transition rate falls, economists find
Opaque money markets work well, Nobel laureate says
Bengt Holmström says policymakers should not try to make money markets more transparent
New NY Fed dataset shows weakening labour market
New York Fed unveils new, more granular labour market data; results so far indicate wage growth is still elusive