Economics
BoE’s Weale: t-distribution may outperform normal
Representing monetary policy committee’s judgements using the t-distribution implies GDP outcomes are skewed to the downside and inflation to the upside
Mester favours ‘error band’ around FOMC projections
Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester would like to some kind of “error band” introduced around FOMC projections, to reflect the uncertainty the committee is grappling with
Building a fast, flexible and free DSGE model
A team at the New York Fed is part way through translating its DSGE model into Julia, a fast, open-source mathematical programming language
IMF issues stark warning to UK on EU exit
Bank of England could find itself battling market dislocation and “substantial” economic slowdown if UK votes to leave EU, IMF warns; Christine Lagarde dismisses accusations of political meddling
Spanish paper explores low TFP growth during expansion
Working paper notes total factor productivity fell between 1995 and 2007 despite solid growth rates in the economy; highlights misallocation of production factors within industry
Malaysian governor explores sustainable finance tools
Muhammad bin Ibrahim sees potential for asset class backed by carbon credit-based solutions but structured using Islamic finance principles
Canadian university to establish central banking chair
Western University, in Ontario, to create post following donation from Jarislowsky Foundation; institution counts Glenn Stevens and Stephen Poloz among alumni
Borio: Pluralism may not be answer to weakness in international system
Claudio Borio sees the “main problem” in the international monetary and financial system as the lack of an effective anchor, and is not sure greater pluralism addresses this
Fed presidents get to grips with weaker productivity data
John Williams and Neel Kashkari discuss short- and long-term factors that could be depressing productivity growth; latest data reveals further slide in quarterly figures
German supervisors need more granular data – IMF staff
Staff say concerns about a housing bubble “look premature” but better data would help the authorities be prepared for imbalances; urge faster progress on structural reforms
Researchers conduct ‘horse race’ of financial crisis early-warning models
Statistical approaches based on machine learning appear to offer more robust early warnings of financial crisis than models based on more conventional techniques, two researchers say
US data can help nowcast Canadian growth, paper finds
Working paper published by Fed board introduces US data into dynamic factor model used for nowcasting the quarterly real GDP growth rate
Aussie dollar drops as RBA cuts inflation outlook
Reserve Bank of Australia cuts forecasts for headline and underlying inflation; lowered its key rate by 25bp to 1.75% earlier this week
Bundesbank's Dombret draws lessons from European CMU for Asia
As Europe constructs its capital markets union, it could offer relevant lessons for Asian economies as they look to finance infrastructure demand in the region, Bundesbank's Dombret says
Sub-Saharan African countries need more responsive policy – IMF staff
Some central banks “impeded” in pursuit of primary mandate; staff report discourages government and structural development financing
Nonlinear models struggle to outperform VARs, Azerbaijani paper finds
Central bank’s first working paper finds various different nonlinear forecasting models perform poorly against autoregressive and VAR models, and even random walks
Bean welcomes bid to increase ONS access to public data
Reforming the legal framework will improve ONS access to administrative data, former BoE deputy says, adding the ONS must be more proactive in acquiring and producing data
Researchers explore link between rates and consumption in new model
Working paper published by ECB examines transmission mechanism of monetary policy in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model
Poloz upbeat on US and Canadian productivity prospects
Bank of Canada governor explores evolution of international trade; it may have fallen, but there are still opportunities for productivity growth, Poloz says
Cross-border banking contraction broadens – BIS statistics
Latest cross-border banking statistics show drop in cross-border claims spread in Q4 2015 from emerging markets to broader regions; China sees particularly large drops in lending
Fed liftoff pushed some rates down – Riksbank paper
Researchers find hike in policy rate lowered average interest rates on subprime lending, and narrowed spreads with the less risky section of the market, using novel "scraped" data set
MAS director hails work on natural catastrophe data
Bernard Wee introduces Natural Catastrophe Data Analytics Exchange, aimed at remedying “gappy” expertise in the region
Research digs into disagreement about inflation expectations
Paper published by Reserve Bank of Australia examines how the disagreement within stakeholder groups about inflation expectations has evolved
BoJ survey reveals growing pessimism over economy
Share of respondents who expect conditions to worsen over coming year rises to over one-third, although most believe conditions have stayed the same over the past 12 months, and will do so again