Economics
ECB paper aims to improve small-scale models for assessing policy shocks
Paper outlines a structural factor model, which the authors say better accounts for the asset price impact of monetary policy shocks
Maskin: technocrats should set eurozone fiscal policy
Harvard economist argues a technocratic body similar to a central bank could set spending and revenue targets in eurozone before allowing politicians to determine the details
RBI’s Mundra: pinning down credit-GDP link is tricky
Deputy governor says a host of factors combine to make the link between credit and growth unclear, but the link may reinstate itself as the economy stabilises
Rajan and co-authors present paper to ECB research conference
Paper introduces “pledgeability” as analytical tool; concept helps explain prolonged financial downturns, authors say
Big data could cut regulatory costs, say panellists
Big data could lead to a reduction in costly regulatory reporting, but three experts say there is still a long way to go before the figures are up to scratch
BoJ paper harnesses census data to improve industry surveys
Researchers aim to make the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey more accurate from a smaller sample, based on Japan’s economic census
New model shows eurozone output gap remains large, researchers argue
Other models fail to capture interplay of inflation and output, paper says
BoE’s Forbes studies generation of ‘global tsunamis’
External MPC member asks why some global shocks have major consequences and others do not, seeking answers in countries’ financial linkages, common shocks and contagion
Eurozone employment-to-GDP-growth ratio has recovered strongly – ECB
Employment growth concentrated in Spain and Germany; productivity remains “stagnant at pre-crisis levels”
BIS research seeks to forecast global inflation
Economist builds global inflation forecast using country-level survey forecasts, finding it can be used to improve domestic inflation projections in some countries
ECB paper examines use of eurozone bank lending survey
Changes in credit standards in the ECB’s bank lending survey serve as leading indicators for GDP and bank loan growth, researchers say
Post-crisis banking regulations increase large firms’ funding advantage – paper
Banque de France working paper presents a large-scale DGSE model with large and small firms to analyse the impact of new banking regulations
Norges Bank paper studies forecast asymmetry at lower bound
Effective lower bound need not translate into asymmetries in other forecast variables, authors find; regime-switching DSGE model helps overcome Lucas critique
Riksbank paper offers method for tackling distorted forecast evaluation
Authors adjust for different amounts of information available, allowing them to overcome distortions in forecast evaluation
Richmond Fed tries to bridge gap between rules and discretion
Economist presents research urging Fed to be more explicit about its strategy using “graphical framework”, while Jeffrey Lacker says rules offer valuable guidance to policy-makers
ECB’s QE policies have significant spillovers into CESEE economies, paper argues
Researchers examine effects on investment of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank
Wage Phillips curves in eurozone steepened after 2008 – paper
Germany was the exception among major eurozone economies, Bank of Italy paper argues
Paper presents new model of interbank loan market
“Novel” model should help policy-makers think through real-life scenarios, researchers say
Eurozone exchange rate pass-through has declined over time – researcher
Italian exchange rate pass-through has behaved very differently from other major eurozone economies – particularly Germany’s – paper finds
RBA’s Kent considers life after the mining boom
Australian economy is well into an adjustment, following the country’s mining investment boom; RBA correctly identified the patterns of adjustment, but was surprised by the magnitude
Chinese financial spillovers to Asia-Pacific on the rise – BIS paper
Working paper finds Chinese equity markets now have almost as much of an impact on Asia-Pacific as the US, though the effects differ in stressed and placid times
Book notes: And the weak suffer what they must?, by Yanis Varoufakis
A book that is likely to elicit strong opinions – but Varoufakis writes persuasively, and may well win over many of his readers, says David Mayes
Falling natural rates impacted by common global factors – Fed paper
Research by Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach and John Williams finds no sign of natural rate decline reversing; advanced economies jointly affected by global factors
Bank of Finland looking to streamline and upgrade payments simulator
Economist sheds light on the bank’s plans for adding new features, improving efficiency and integrating agent-based modelling