Economics
House prices react rapidly to rates shocks – BIS paper
Monetary policy transmission stronger in US property market than previously thought, study argues
Cash use supporting ‘shadow economy’ in Slovakia – study
Central bank research points to “substantial” activity intended to avoid regulatory scrutiny
Phasing out coal-fired power could ultimately pay for itself – BdF paper
Authors say gains from lower operating and finance costs could compensate for outlay costs
Households biased in views of purchasing power – BdF deputy
Bénassy-Quéré says too much emphasis placed on food and energy prices’ effects on inflation
China poses ‘risk of economic coercion’ – Belgian paper
National Bank of Belgium says trade with EU has shifted to more “strategic” goods
Draghi report calls for step change in EU investment
Former ECB chief says bloc should revive securitisation and finish capital markets union to stay competitive
Former PBoC head urges efforts to fight deflationary pressure
Yi Gang highlights weak domestic demand and need for fiscal and monetary support
Hungary has been ‘off course’ since 2021 – MNB governor
Matolcsy tears into government’s economic policy
Phillips curve differs depending on labour market – Fed study
Research finds curve to be flat in normal markets and steep in tight ones
Credit expansion could dampen growth in EMEs – BIS bulletin
Shift in lending from manufacturing and into real estate is also affecting productivity
North Macedonia develops new DSGE model
Analytical tool to supplement existing models built in conjunction with CNB and IMF
Lower-paid workers face greatest impact from AI – BIS paper
Risk of core skills being replaced, and jobs being lost, is higher for people on low incomes
Bank closures lead to job cuts at small businesses – Fed study
Research finds that if 25% of local branches close, employment growth falls by four percentage points
Global house prices have ‘almost stabilised’ – BIS
Prices still declining in aggregate, a trend driven mainly by China and the eurozone
Wildfire pollution depresses home values and rents – study
Dallas Fed research finds effects extend to areas “thousands of miles” from where fires take place
Mortgage reforms, surprise rate hikes harm renters – ECB study
Researchers say young people could lose equivalent of 1% of their lifetime consumption
HKMA launches new measures to support struggling SMEs
Authority expands banks’ access to company data and sets up taskforce to handle financing applications
‘Beveridge threshold’ can explain US soft landing – study
Gauti Eggertson tells Jackson Hole attendees why many economists were too gloomy about growth
Greedflation, if it ever existed, is correcting itself
Steve Kamin constructs a “wage gap” to assess inflationary pressures in the US
BIS publishes centuries of data on central bank balance sheets
New “spliced” series extends back to founding of Sweden’s Riksbank in 17th century
US housing may become increasingly affordable – paper
Authors cite income growth and housing price appreciation that trails inflation as contributory factors
Medium-term US inflation expectations hit record low
However, expert says infrastructure projects could push prices to higher-than-expected levels
UK CPI up less than expected as services inflation falls
Figures may help allay concerns over persistent wage pressures
‘State-dependent’ model sheds light on inflation surge
Bank of Spain’s Galo Nuño says changing key pricing assumption helps explain “immaculate disinflation”