Labour market
MPC dissent grows amid BoE dilemma
Rates remain on hold but committee split 5-3 as some argue the BoE’s difficult trade-off has shifted in favour of tackling inflation
Norges Bank sees room for improvement when forecasting wages
Evaluation of forecast performance shows both the central bank and other forecasters struggled to produce accurate estimates of wage growth and unemployment
Yellen told inflation target needs revising
Economists say current economic conditions call for a revision in the inflation target; Federal Reserve should appoint commission to advise on “path forward”
Brainard turns cautious on inflation concerns
Lack of wage growth and lower than expected inflation data could slow further monetary easing, says Fed governor; interest rates are likely to rise “soon”
Protectionism is a ‘dead end’, says New York Fed president
Dudley highlights the second-round impact of protectionism, which ultimately harms higher-paying jobs; policies should foster competition and provide more assistance to workers
Considerable slack may remain in eurozone labour market – ECB
Under-utilisation of labour may affect 18% of eurozone labour force, researchers say
Capital deepening ‘virtually absent’ in US and eurozone – ECB
US and eurozone have seen major falls in net investment, an ECB article says
Offshoring of services could hinder job security – paper
National Bank of Belgium examines impact of offshoring goods and services; pace of services offshoring could hurt job prospects for those working in the sector
Deterioration in labour market not yet hitting unemployment – Chile’s Marcel
Chilean governor says self-employment has acted as a “significant buffer” as employment declined; unemployment not yet being affected thanks to “flexibility” of market, governor says
Technology driving inequality in advanced economies – IMF
Technology plays “dominant role” in explaining falling labour share of income in advanced economies, study finds; globalisation more important for emerging markets
BoE’s Forbes dissents as inflation looms
MPC member votes for 25bp hike as inflation looks set to exceed target until “at least” 2020; other members sitting on the fence, for now
IMF authors examine conditions for structural reform success
Most labour and product market reforms strengthen medium-term output and fiscal sustainability, but they may be painful to implement in some parts of the cycle
Fed could raise rates ‘fairly soon’ – minutes
Minutes show committee members will be watching labour and inflation data very closely; raising rates would offer “flexibility” in responding to economic changes
Uncertainty about momentum in the labour market – RBA minutes
“Mixed” picture in Australian labour market shows unemployment increasing alongside full-time employment; spare capacity likely to persist “for some time”
Fed’s Williams says labour market figures are accurate
Current unemployment rate “accurately” reflects the state of the labour market; San Francisco Fed researches a broader measure of the market
El Salvador governor highlights benefits of increasing minimum wage
New minimum wage legislation will improve the living standards of 19.9% of households, says El Salvador governor; raise will also have positive impact on total economic growth
Harker optimistic in first speech as FOMC voting member
Inflation target set to be met this year, says Philadelphia Fed governor, noting labour force participation issues need to be addressed with legislative action
Monitoring the labour market is key – BoE’s Saunders
Bank of England’s MPC member says unemployment should stay below the equilibrium 5% estimate in 2017 – but, should “warning signs appear”, changes to forecasts could be made
Inflation to reach 2% target in next six months, BoE says
MPC votes unanimously to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%; exchange rate appreciation suggests smaller overshoot of inflation target than previously forecast
Economic growth on the horizon for Finland, says Liikanen
Improved productivity and higher employment are needed to boost economic growth, says Finnish governor; Bank of Finland’s forecasts show recovery will be slower than in previous cycles
Eurozone must urgently raise productivity, Draghi warns
ECB policy provides governments with "window of opportunity" for reform, ECB president says
Poloz urges economists to create new economic models
The rise of the service sector has changed the way productivity and output can be calculated, the Canadian governor says, musing on whether the relationship between inflation and growth could change over time
Norges Bank paper presents new evidence on immigration impact
Authors seek to disentangle immigration shock from broader macroeconomic effects, using unique Norwegian data series
Financial markets should not write off uncertainty, says BoE’s Forbes
Bank of England deputy says the effects of uncertainty around Brexit could still materialise; uncertainty measures could “quickly shift”, says Forbes