Inflation
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed president discusses his support for average inflation targeting, his concerns about US Treasuries market function, non-bank regulatory weakness and negative rates, as well as the unexpected success in using Homebase data to predict highly…
Covid-19 policy-making and the need for high-speed data
High-frequency data holds the promise of speed and adaptability, but the rush to find alternative economic indicators has the potential to create problems
Book notes: The menace of fiscal QE, by George Selgin
Much of this book is even more relevant, thought-provoking and important following Covid-19
Bank of Mexico cites ‘major challenges’ as it cuts rate
Policy-makers focused on maintaining “room for manoeuvre” as inflation risks evolve
RBNZ boosts asset purchases and prepares new policies
Negative rates and funding for lending programme under “active preparation”
Romania cuts rates as rising Covid-19 cases hurt economy
Central bank says resurgent pandemic risks recovery and calls for more clarity on fiscal policy
Brazil’s central bank cuts rates to record low
MPC says there is limited space for more monetary policy stimulus as crisis continues
BoE says negative rates ‘in toolbox’ and forecasts slow recovery
First “proper” forecast since Covid-19 outbreak gives little hope of a V-shaped recovery
Lane stresses inflation will determine ECB’s PEPP purchases
Lower inflation outlook could mean the programme will remain longer than anticipated
Colombia cuts rates to record low of 2.25%
Central bank has revised down GDP growth to a range between -6% and -10% for 2020
Kansas Fed paper looks at conditional forward guidance
Date-based forward guidance would be effective without yield curve control, research says
Bank of Russia cuts rates to record low
Governor argues monetary stimulus will offset fiscal consolidation efforts in 2021–22
Sarb cuts rates as unemployment breaches 30%
Central bank says emerging markets will struggle as lockdown measures ease
NBU surprises with hold in Shevchenko’s first policy decision
New governor had seemed to hint at desire to ease policy, but now indicates rate will remain on hold
Lebanese central bank faces audit as crisis deepens
Inflation is spiralling and IMF talks have yet to result in a bailout package
Hungary’s central bank to start buying government securities
Central bank notes monetary policy has fallen short and cuts interest rates to a new low of 0.6%
EU recovery fund set to ease ECB’s burden
Common debt issuance likely to significantly reduce fragmentation risks, taming sovereign bond spreads, say analysts
New NBU governor promises to safeguard bank reforms and independence
Kyrylo Shevchenko emphasises continuity in first remarks since taking office
Two FOMC members back overshooting target
Brainard and Harker suggest Fed should leave rates low until inflation rises above 2% target
Canada holds rates as governor warns of “long climb out”
Governor says interest rates will stay “unusually low” as central bank forecasts GDP fall of 7.8%
Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling
Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high
Malawi’s new president dismisses governor
Former World Bank official will take over central bank as country faces uncertain outlook
Headline inflation to stray into negative territory, Bank of Thailand reports
Sharp decline in oil prices and government measures push forecast for headline inflation to -1.7%
Growth has replaced slack in Phillips curve relationship – Cleveland Fed paper
Findings could have “substantial disinflationary” implications during current recession, researchers say